Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

Banco Santander SA ADR logoBanco Santander SA ADR SAN

Outside both standards

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Banco Santander, S.A.

The label
Markup

read at $13.54

Banco Santander SA ADR holds its Markup at $13.54.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseMarkup
Quantitative stateConsolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price$13.54
Valuation13.41 trailing · 11.05 forward price to earnings
Values screenFAIL · score 30.0
Beta0.93

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Read at
$13.54
13.41 P/E · 11.05 fwd
Our fair value
$15.78
17% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$15.60
+15% to current
Target low $9.30Analyst target rangeTarget high $15.78
▲ current $13.54 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$16.8$9.4$2.1TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONOur fair value$15.78 +32%Analyst high$15.78 +32%Analyst avg$15.60 +31%Conservative$13.79 +16%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$13.54
you are here
Conservative
$13.79
+2%
Analyst avg
$15.60
+15%
Our fair value
$15.78
+17%
Analyst high
$15.78
+17%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.

Profit margin33.46%
Analyst consensusHold · 3 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✗ DOES NOT PASS

Why it fails. The problem is its excluded industry: banks - diversified. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Excluded industry: Banks - Diversified Fail
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Fail
  • Interest-bearing cash Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit. Fail
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit. Fail
  • Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line. Fail

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Banks like Santander trip the ethical line

When a shop owner in Spain needs a loan or a family in Mexico wires money home, Santander sits at the centre of those everyday flows. It runs a diversified banking model across Europe and Latin America with a narrow moat, 34 percent profit margins and 13 percent return on equity.

We pass on the name outright. It fails our ethical screen because diversified banks sit on the excluded list, regardless of the 10.9 times forward earnings or the 16 percent gap to our fair value estimate of $15.78. The hold consensus and $16 median target from three analysts do not change that verdict.

Revenue growth sits at a modest 5 percent and the shares trade at a price that looks reasonable on paper, yet the ethical filter exists to keep us out of whole sectors where societal costs outweigh any valuation appeal. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E11.0x
reasonably valued
Trailing P/E13.4x
reasonably valued
Profit margin33.5%
highly profitable on every dollar of sales
Return on equity13.1%
a solid return on shareholder capital
Beta0.93
steadier than the market
Market cap$194.0B
Employees186,370

The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Spain and to currency swings.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on SAN

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in SAN's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-22 · Markup

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-22 Markup $13.55 +0.0% Entry 9

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-21 Markup $13.55 +0.0% Entry 8

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-20 Markup $13.55 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-19 Markup $13.55 +5.3% Entry 6

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-18 Markup $12.87 +0.0% Entry 5

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-17 Markup $12.87 +0.0% Entry 4

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-16 Markup $12.87 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 52%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-03 Markup $12.87 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Markup $12.87 Entry 1

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming SAN
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
9 Jun2026 Gil Cisneros Democrat buy 1K–15K
7 May2026 Josh Gottheimer Democrat buy 1K–15K
6 May2026 Scott Peters Democrat buy 250K–500K
4 May2026 Scott Peters Democrat sell 100K–250K
29 May2026 Scott Peters Democrat sell 500K–1M

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $12.13 -1.8% · $982 -1.8%
2 months $12.05 -1.1% $0.15 $1,001 +0.1%
3 months $10.86 +9.8% $0.15 $1,111 +11.1%
6 months $11.36 +4.9% $0.15 $1,062 +6.2%
1 year $7.82 +52.3% $0.15 $1,542 +54.2%
2 years $4.77 +149.6% $0.38 $2,576 +157.6%
3 years $3.12 +282.3% $0.57 $4,006 +300.6%
5 years $3.56 +234.2% $0.80 $3,568 +256.8%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever SAN does next, these words stay.

Banco Santander SA ADR · SAN · Markup · $13.54
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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