MSFT
Microsoft
Information Technology · Systems Software · US
$419.10
+0.01 (+0.00%)
Close 2026-05-22
✓ ETHICAL PASS

STRONG MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$3.2T
Trailing P/E
25.47
Forward P/E
22.09
Rev Growth
+18.3%
Profit Margin
39.3%
ROE
34.0%
Analyst Target
$561.56
Recommendation
STRONG BUY
About Microsoft

Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment provides Server products and cloud services comprising Azure and other cloud services, GitHub, Nuance Healthcare, virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; server products, including SQL and windows server, visual studio and system center related client access licenses, and other on-premises offerings; enterprise and partner services, such as enterprise support and nuance professional services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner network, and learning experience. The Personal Computing segment provides windows and devices, such as Windows OEM licensing and devices and surface and PC accessories; gaming services and solutions, such as Xbox hardware, content, and services, first- and third-party content Xbox game pass, subscriptions, and cloud gaming, advertising, and other cloud services; search and news advertising services that includes Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News and Edge, and third-party affiliates. It sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and online and retail stores. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $428, 21% above fair value of $354. Strong competitive moat. 39% profit margins. Passes all ethical screens. Ranks better than 81% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.10%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.16%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.01%)PASS
OverallPASS
Score Ethical: 89.7
Score Valuation: 44.5
Score Quality: 88.2
Score Combined: 61.6
Fair Value Est: $354.19 · Margin of Safety: -20.7% · Tier: FAIR VALUE

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation87.6
Quality100.0
Cash Flow15.0
Moat100.0
Balance Sheet95.5
Debt Purity70.3
Liquid Purity98.8
Rev Purity81.2
Compliance81.9
Tier: SILVER · Score: 58.8 · Rank: #529
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-294.24Pending--
2026-04-294.064.27+5.2%
2026-01-283.924.14+5.7%
2025-10-293.664.13+12.7%
2025-07-303.383.65+8.1%
2025-04-303.223.46+7.4%
2025-01-293.123.23+3.5%
2024-10-303.113.30+6.2%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$82.9B$31.8B$50.3B$56.1B$38.4B4.28
2025-12-31$81.3B$38.5B$58.2B$55.3B$38.3B5.18
2025-09-30$77.7B$27.7B$48.1B$53.6B$38.0B3.73
2025-06-30$76.4B$27.2B$44.4B$52.4B$34.3B3.66
2025-03-31$70.1B$25.8B$39.7B$48.1B$32.0B3.47
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-14COLEMAN AMYOfficer1,262$519.2K
2026-03-06HOGAN KATHLEEN TOfficer12,320$5.0M
2026-02-18STANTON JOHN W.Director5,000$2.0M
2026-01-30SCHARF CHARLES WDirector145--
2026-01-30STANTON JOHN W.Director145--
2026-01-30MASON MARK A.L.Director145--
2026-01-30LIST TERIDirector145--
2025-12-10HOGAN KATHLEEN TOfficer150--
2025-12-04NUMOTO TAKESHIOfficer2,850$1.4M
2025-12-04SCHARF CHARLES WDirector130--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Blackrock Inc.593.3M$248.3B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC482.6M$202.0B0.1%
State Street Corporation306.7M$128.4B0.0%
FMR, LLC190.2M$79.6B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC188.5M$78.9B0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC167.5M$70.1B0.0%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO127.1M$53.2B0.0%
Morgan Stanley124.9M$52.3B0.0%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc117.2M$49.1B0.0%
Capital Research Global Investors96.1M$40.2B0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
9
42
3
54 analysts
2 Months Ago
10
45
3
58 analysts
Last Month
10
44
3
57 analysts
Current
11
41
3
55 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Political Trades & Convergence
CONVERGENCE: STRONG BULLISH
Politicians: 3
Insiders: 0
Institutions: 0
Politicians trading MSFT:
["Political Buy" "Insider Buy" "Whale Consensus (3 funds)"]
DatePoliticianTradeSize ($)Copy Return
2025-03-10Nancy PelosiBUY$100.0K+10.2%
2025-01-20April McClain DelaneyBUY$8.0K+7.5%
2024-09-10Tim MooreBUY$20.0K+0.1%
2024-09-05Ted CruzBUY$20.0K+2.3%
2024-08-20Lisa McClainBUY$15.0K+3.0%
2024-08-10Marjorie Taylor GreeneBUY$15.0K-0.2%
2024-06-20Dan CrenshawBUY$20.0K+8.6%
2024-06-20Tony WiedBUY$10.0K+8.6%
2024-06-10Andy BarrBUY$8.0K+2.6%
2024-02-20Tina SmithBUY$10.0K+1.1%
Recent Price History
2026-05-22
$419.10
+0.01 (+0.00%)
Vol: 5.4M
2026-05-22
$418.69
-0.40 (-0.10%)
Vol: 15.6M
2026-05-21
$419.09
-1.97 (-0.47%)
Vol: 31.0M
2026-05-20
$421.06
+3.64 (+0.87%)
Vol: 25.8M
5D Range
H: $426.34
L: $411.30
O: $419.48
May 20
May 21
May 22
May 22
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$3.2T
Price/Book
7.50
Beta
1.093
Analysts
54
Total Revenue (TTM)
$318.3B
Total Debt
$125.4B
Earnings Growth
+23.4%
Dividend Yield
0.9%
Rec. Mean
1.31
Short Ratio
2.26
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
228,000

Elite Intelligence

Trade Consideration with position sizing, convergence signals, and risk analysis. Available to Elite members.

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 61.6 (P97 — top 3.1% of scored tickers). Strong Moat. Ethical PASS. 54 analysts at Strong Buy.
Price: $419.10 | Target: $560.63 (+34%) | Fair Value: $354.19 (+-15%)
Score
62
Moat
STRONG
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+34%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+18.3%
Profit Margin39.3%
ROE34.0%
Forward P/E22.1
Market Cap$3.2T
Convergence Signal
STRONG BULLISH— Politicians, insiders, and institutional funds aligned
Top Institutions:
Blackrock Inc. — $248.3B (0.1%)
Vanguard Capital Management LLC — $202.0B (0.1%)
State Street Corporation — $128.4B (0.0%)
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-29$4.24Pending
2026-04-29$4.06$4.27+5.2%
2026-01-28$3.92$4.14+5.7%
2025-10-29$3.66$4.13+12.7%
2025-07-30$3.38$3.65+8.1%
2025-04-30$3.22$3.46+7.4%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $356.23 (-15%) | Entry: $419.10
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($560.63, 54 analysts)
10$4,190.95+$1,415.40 (34%)2.3R
50$20,954.75+$7,077.00 (34%)2.3R
100$41,909.50+$14,154.00 (34%)2.3R
To Fair Value ($354.19)
10$4,190.95+$-649.10 (-15%)-1.0R
50$20,954.75+$-3,245.50 (-15%)-1.0R
100$41,909.50+$-6,491.00 (-15%)-1.0R
Risk Factors
  • No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
Microsoft passes all ethical screens, has strong convergence from politicians, insiders, and institutions, and holds a strong competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
64.4
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Quality: CONSISTENT_BEATER
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.5%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-3.8%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
-0.05
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-33.9%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
90
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.1x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
100.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
SPUS0.657
XLK0.649
QQQ0.647
HLAL0.638
ESGV0.635
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
ED-0.229
ULVR.L-0.217
AWK-0.210
JNJ-0.188
PPC-0.182
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Jun
Worst Month
Feb
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.17970128056719153
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
-3.8%
Beat Drift Positive %
14.3%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-1.8%
3M Return
+7.2%
6M Return
-12.7%
12M Return
-7.8%
Momentum Rank
#2997
Momentum Signal
FLAT

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