Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.45, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price295.57 USD
Fair value500.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-17Read Distribution286.78+3.1% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-16Read Markdown286.78+3.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 5 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution306.07-3.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 18% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-04Read Markdown371.89-20.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 19% rise in 9 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Lithia Motors, Inc. holds its Distribution at $295.57. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$295.57
Valuation
9.92 trailing · 7.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
61.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 61.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.95%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.33%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Lithia Motors,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 62% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today LAD does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 69.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Dealership Chain Trades Cheap But Cycles Loom
Picture a used car lot where every sale hinges on whether buyers feel flush this quarter. Lithia Motors moves metal across the US, UK and Canada, yet revenue is crawling along at just 1 percent while margins sit at 2 percent. The shares sit at 8.2 times forward earnings against a stated fair value that implies 34 percent upside, yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
What stands out is the classic cyclical trap. A low multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and here the 11 percent return on equity offers little cushion once volumes turn. Analysts still lean buy with a 390 dollar median target, but the business shows no pricing power or durable edge to ride out a slowdown.
The real risk sits in consumer spending swings and thin profitability that can evaporate quickly in a downturn. Ethical screening clears the name, yet the numbers still flag limited staying power when the cycle shifts. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LAD trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Distribution$299.53+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370.
2026-10-21Distribution$299.53+4.4%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$286.78+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Distribution$286.78+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$286.78+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown · changed$286.78-1.2%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Distribution$290.24+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Distribution$290.24-5.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $370.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
