Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price30.55 USD
Fair value44.45
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Markdown30.55+0.0% to today
2026-08-16Read Distribution35.34-13.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup37.61-18.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Valvoline Inc. holds its Distribution at $30.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$30.55
Valuation
37.72 trailing · 15.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.99
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.03%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 52.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Quick oil changes fuel steady but unexciting growth
Every time a driver pulls into a strip mall for an oil change or new wiper blades, Valvoline captures that spend through its owned and franchised stores. Revenue is rising 25 percent, return on equity sits at a healthy 32 percent, and the business clears our ethical screen without issue. Those are solid numbers for a consumer cyclical name.
Yet the shares trade at 19.4 times forward earnings with only a 9 percent margin of safety to our fair value. Profit margins remain thin at 5 percent, and the company sits squarely in a sector that slows when households cut discretionary spending. Analyst targets cluster near current levels, offering little extra cushion.
Cyclical exposure and modest valuation headroom keep any edge small. A downturn could compress those returns quickly even if the brand stays intact. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VVV trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-16Markdown · changed$30.55-13.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Markup$37.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Markup$37.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$37.61Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
