NAS10031,076+0.87%S&P7,774+0.66%GOLD$4,169+0.29%BTC$85,283−0.59%VIX15.52+1.37%live tape · as of 07:26 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Auto & Truck Dealerships
Penske Automotive Group Inc
PAG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $14.0B · 28,800 employees
Penske Automotive Group, Inc., a diversified transportation services company, operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Z…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
212.16 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote Last reviewed 15 days ago
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 07:26 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 212.16 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 192.80, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price212.16 USD
Fair value192.80
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown212.16+0.0% to today
2026-09-09Read Accumulation218.06-2.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup180.96+17.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Penske Automotive Group Inc holds its Markdown at $212.16. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$212.16
Valuation
15.41 trailing · 14.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.56%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Penske Automotive's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 50% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Car dealer stretched above its fair value
Picture a used car lot in the Midwest on a slow Saturday. The lots are full, but buyers are holding back and prices are sliding. Penske sits in that exact spot, a big US and international dealership group whose revenue has already turned negative while the shares trade well above our fair value.
At 14 times forward earnings the multiple looks ordinary, yet the business is shrinking, margins are thin at 3 percent and the narrow moat offers little protection when volumes fall. Our numbers put fair value 13 percent below the current price, so there is no margin of safety and no opportunity worth taking.
The real risk is the cycle itself. Auto retail earnings peak and trough sharply, and a low multiple at the top is usually a warning rather than a bargain. Ethical screen cleared, yet the valuation and growth numbers still fail our test. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PAG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$212.16-2.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-08-08Markup$220.61+21.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-18Markup$180.96+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-03Markup$180.96+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$180.96Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
