Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price168.29 USD
Fair value300.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Distribution195.37-13.9% to today ✓
2026-08-21Read Markup208.62-19.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution191.53-12.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AutoNation, Inc. holds its Distribution at $168.29. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$168.29
Valuation
9.06 trailing · 7.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
70.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 70.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.75%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 78.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap car lots mask a classic cyclical trap
Picture a forecourt packed with new and used vehicles, where buyers trade up or finance on the spot. AutoNation runs that network across the United States, covering domestic, import and luxury brands plus its own lending arm.
The 8.4 times forward multiple and 29 percent return on equity look attractive next to a 2 percent profit margin, yet revenue is already falling 2 percent. In cyclical auto retail a depressed earnings multiple is usually a warning sign of peak profits rather than a bargain, which is why the opportunity rating stays at none even with the gap to our fair value.
Demand for cars swings hard with interest rates, consumer confidence and used-vehicle prices, while an unknown competitive edge leaves little protection when volumes drop. Analyst targets sit at 240 dollars, but none of that changes the risk of mistaking a low multiple for lasting value. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$208.62+1.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243.
2026-07-21Distribution$205.72+7.4%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243.
2026-07-18Distribution$191.53+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243.
2026-07-17Distribution$191.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243.
2026-07-03Distribution$191.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$191.53Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
