Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-19
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price56.84 USD
Fair value62.38
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-24Read Markdown56.84+0.0% to today
2026-09-03Read Accumulation64.22-11.5% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup51.26+10.9% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
CarMax, Inc. holds its Distribution at $56.84. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$56.84
Valuation
35.30 trailing · 18.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
70.33%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 70.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
7.20%
Below 5%
7.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
CarMax,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 70% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Used Car Chain Priced Beyond Its Reach
Picture a shopper haggling over a used car only to find the sticker already higher than any independent valuation. CarMax sits in that spot today. Revenue edges up just 6 percent while net margins scrape 1 percent and return on equity limps along at 4 percent. The shares trade at 18.9 times forward earnings, above our fair value of 55.87 dollars against a 57.33 dollar price, leaving no margin of safety and an explicit none rating from our screen.
Thirteen analysts already signal the same caution with a hold consensus and a 45 dollar median target. The ethical screen clears the business, yet the operating numbers do not support paying a premium. Low returns and thin margins leave little room for error in a market that can shift quickly.
Auto retail remains cyclical and exposed to interest rates, consumer confidence and used vehicle supply. A low multiple would normally raise eyebrows about peak earnings, but here the multiple is not low and the earnings power looks modest. The gap between price and both our value and the street target is the clearest signal to stay clear. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KMX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$56.84+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-09-24Markdown · changed$56.84-11.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500; its composite score rose. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-04Markup$58.70+14.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markup$51.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Markup$51.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$51.26Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.