Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.62, read 2026-10-24
Ethical passes the values gate
Price139.55 USD
Fair value160.20
Ethical score91.1/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-24Read Markup139.55+0.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-18Read Markdown139.55+0.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation139.42+0.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown139.42+0.1% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
D. R. Horton holds its Markup at $139.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 205 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 205 days
Price at the screen
$139.55
Valuation
13.30 trailing · 12.13 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 91.1
Beta
1.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
D. R. Horton clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 17%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-24. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when DHI's ethical verdict changes
Today DHI passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $160.20 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home sales dip but builders keep margins
Picture a family signing for their first house just as mortgage rates bite and volumes slow. D.R. Horton still clears a 10 percent profit margin and 13 percent return on equity while the shares trade at 12.4 times forward earnings, well below our assessed value. The narrow moat and ethical pass give it room to compound if the cycle turns.
Yet this is classic cyclical ground. Revenue already fell 2 percent and low multiples on peak earnings often signal a value trap rather than a bargain. Analyst consensus sits at hold with a 173 dollar median target, so any recovery must overcome both higher rates and softer demand.
The 26 percent margin of safety offers a buffer, but only if housing volumes stabilise faster than the numbers currently imply. Analysis, not advice.
DHI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-24Markup · changed$139.55+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $152. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$139.55+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $152. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$139.55+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $153. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$139.55+0.1%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $153.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $155.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$139.42-6.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $159.
2026-08-26Markup · changed$148.35-0.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $163.
2026-07-26Distribution$149.39+2.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-18Distribution$145.60+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-03Distribution$145.60+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.