HXL · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.8B · 5,563 employees
Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets advanced lightweight composites technology.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
89.82 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Hexcel Corporation holds its Markdown at $89.82. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$89.82
Valuation
45.36 trailing · 28.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aerospace composites hit an ethical stop sign
Every new passenger jet or defence platform that takes to the skies likely carries Hexcel's carbon fibre inside its structures. The business supplies the lightweight materials that help aircraft makers hit weight and fuel targets. We pass outright because the ethical screen flags prohibited activity in aerospace and defence.
The shares trade at $103.81 against our fair value of $80.72, a 22 percent premium. Forward earnings sit at 32.5 times while revenue grows 10 percent, margins run at 6 percent and return on equity is only 8 percent. Those figures do not justify paying up, even before the ethical block.
Valuation leaves little room for the modest returns on show, and any cyclical slowdown in aircraft orders would compress earnings quickly. The prohibited business exposure rules the name out regardless of what analysts say. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HXL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markdown · changed$92.57-10.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$102.91+5.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-07-18Distribution$97.71+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-07-03Distribution$97.71+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$97.71Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
