Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-15
Options put/call open interest 0.51, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price427.34 USD
Fair value489.80
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markup262.01+63.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Marathon Petroleum holds its Markup at $427.34. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$427.34
Valuation
14.98 trailing · 7.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
8.09%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.66%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Marathon Petroleum's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 41% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $489.80 fair value, weak competitive moat, 53.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $489.80, with a range of $382.20 to $637.00, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
US refiner looks cheap but carries heavy debt
Every time crude prices spike, refiners book fat margins that vanish the moment demand softens or inventories build. We pass on Marathon because the 12.4 times forward multiple sits on what looks like peak-cycle earnings, not a durable edge, and the business carries a weak moat with just 3 percent profit margins despite 9 percent revenue growth.
Return on equity reaches 27 percent, yet that figure flatters a capital-heavy model exposed to oil swings. The shares trade 18 percent above our fair value of 256.78 against a 312.60 price, and the ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a clear failure.
Seventeen analysts still rate it a buy with a 300 median target, but cyclical value traps often appear cheapest right before earnings roll over. Debt adds fragility when fuel cracks narrow. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MPC trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$444.73+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$444.73+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$444.73+2.8%Entry 20
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$432.51+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$432.51-5.4%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$457.22-4.1%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$476.92+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$476.92+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$476.92+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 82% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $459.
2026-10-16Markup$476.92+21.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $442.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
