The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Marathon Petroleum MPC
Outside both standards
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States.
read at $312.35
Marathon Petroleum holds its Markup at $312.35.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days |
| Price | $312.35 |
| Valuation | 20.58 trailing · 11.25 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 0.52 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $272.82 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 8.80% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
| Revenue growth | 8.80% |
| Profit margin | 3.41% |
| Debt to equity | 146.52 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 18 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 40.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Fail
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.1% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 16.7% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
US refiner looks cheap but carries heavy debt
Every time crude prices spike, refiners book fat margins that vanish the moment demand softens or inventories build. We pass on Marathon because the 12.4 times forward multiple sits on what looks like peak-cycle earnings, not a durable edge, and the business carries a weak moat with just 3 percent profit margins despite 9 percent revenue growth.
Return on equity reaches 27 percent, yet that figure flatters a capital-heavy model exposed to oil swings. The shares trade 18 percent above our fair value of 256.78 against a 312.60 price, and the ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a clear failure.
Seventeen analysts still rate it a buy with a 300 median target, but cyclical value traps often appear cheapest right before earnings roll over. Debt adds fragility when fuel cracks narrow. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 11.2x priced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 20.6x a premium valuation |
| Revenue growth | 8.8% steady growth |
| Profit margin | 3.4% barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 27.5% an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 1.47 a meaningful debt load worth watching |
| Current ratio | 1.18 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.52 steadier than the market |
| Market cap | $91.2B |
| Employees | 18,500 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on MPC
- › ExxonMobil Stock Offers a Different Kind of Fuel Trefis · 14d ago
- › Refining Margins Hit a Record. What That Means for Gas Prices. Barrons.com · 14d ago
- › Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock May Be 17% Undervalued As Earnings Near Simply Wall St. · 15d ago
- › How Current Refining Margins Are Driving an Edge for MPC (Revised) Zacks · 16d ago
- › Forget Oil Prices — This 1 Refining Number Explains Why These Energy Stocks Are On Fire 24/7 Wall St. · 17d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in MPC's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MPC trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | HESSLING RICKY D. | Officer | 1,000 | $250,000 | |
| 2026-04-30 | ELLISON-TAYLOR KIMBERLY N | Director | 727 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | PATERSON EILEEN PATRICIA | Director | 727 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | RUCKER KIM K. W. | Director | 727 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | SEMPLE FRANK M | Director | 727 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | SURMA JOHN P JR. | Director | 727 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | COHEN JONATHAN Z | Director | 727 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | STICE J MICHAEL | Director | 727 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | CAMPBELL JEFFREY C | Director | 727 | · | |
| 2026-04-30 | BAYH B EVAN III | Director | 727 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $251.52 | +5.3% | $1.00 | $1,057 | +5.7% |
| 2 months | $221.77 | +19.5% | $1.00 | $1,199 | +19.9% |
| 3 months | $229.20 | +15.6% | $1.00 | $1,160 | +16.0% |
| 6 months | $185.47 | +42.9% | $2.00 | $1,439 | +43.9% |
| 1 year | $159.52 | +66.1% | $3.91 | $1,686 | +68.6% |
| 2 years | $167.28 | +58.4% | $7.47 | $1,629 | +62.9% |
| 3 years | $106.27 | +149.3% | $10.69 | $2,594 | +159.4% |
| 5 years | $56.11 | +372.2% | $15.84 | $5,004 | +400.4% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.