NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 19:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Marathon Petroleum
MPC · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $111.7B · 18,500 employees
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
397.77 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Marathon Petroleum holds its Accumulation at $397.77. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days
Price at the screen
$397.77
Valuation
13.78 trailing · 12.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
8.09%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.66%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $295.26 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 53.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 25.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
US refiner looks cheap but carries heavy debt
Every time crude prices spike, refiners book fat margins that vanish the moment demand softens or inventories build. We pass on Marathon because the 12.4 times forward multiple sits on what looks like peak-cycle earnings, not a durable edge, and the business carries a weak moat with just 3 percent profit margins despite 9 percent revenue growth.
Return on equity reaches 27 percent, yet that figure flatters a capital-heavy model exposed to oil swings. The shares trade 18 percent above our fair value of 256.78 against a 312.60 price, and the ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a clear failure.
Seventeen analysts still rate it a buy with a 300 median target, but cyclical value traps often appear cheapest right before earnings roll over. Debt adds fragility when fuel cracks narrow. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MPC trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup$358.23+14.7%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $327.
2026-08-04Markup$312.35+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$312.35+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$312.35+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$312.35+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$312.35+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$312.35+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$312.35+19.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$262.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $259.
2026-07-03Markup$262.01+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
