NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,418+0.42%BTC$81,092+6.14%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 21:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valero Energy
VLO · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $110.2B · 9,785 employees
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, M…
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Valero Energy holds its Accumulation at $382.85. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days
Price at the screen
$382.85
Valuation
15.96 trailing · 12.27 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.9
Beta
0.57
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.18%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 24.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $294.38 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 51.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 23.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Refiner looks tempting on paper alone
Picture a plant turning crude into petrol while oil prices rollercoaster every quarter. That is the daily reality for this refiner.
It stands out on a forward multiple of 13.9 times, 7 percent revenue growth, 4 percent margins and 16 percent return on equity. The ethical screen clears it and the analyst crowd leans buy toward 288 dollars.
Refining is deeply cyclical, so the low multiple often flags peak earnings rather than a bargain. Shares sit 23 percent above our fair value of 237.94 dollars. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VLO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256.
2026-07-30Markup$304.93+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$304.93-1.5%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$309.65+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$309.65+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$309.65+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$309.65+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$309.65+21.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$255.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 101%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $256.
2026-07-03Markup$255.82+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.