An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Kimberly-Clark Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets personal care products in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $108.35
Kimberly-Clark holds its Markup at $108.35.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 119 days
Price
$108.35
Valuation
20.96 trailing · 14.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.28
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 42.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 14.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $133.08 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 2.70% revenue growth.
Read at
$108.35
20.96 P/E · 14.34 fwd
Our fair value
$133.08
23% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$115.00
+6% to current
Target low $90.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $162.00
▲ current $108.35 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$108.35
you are here
Conservative
$113.37
+5%
Analyst avg
$115.00
+6%
Our fair value
$133.08
+23%
Analyst high
$162.00
+50%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
2.70%
Profit margin
12.80%
Debt to equity
371.26
Analyst consensus
Hold · 15 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Daily Essentials Hide a Heavy Debt Load
Every morning millions reach for the same brands of tissues and nappies without thinking twice. Yet behind those steady sales sits a balance sheet that already fails our ethical screen on debt. At a forward multiple of 14.3 times and revenue growth stuck at 3 percent, the numbers do not justify stepping around that red flag.
We pass for the straightforward reason that high leverage breaks the ethical test, even with a moderate moat, 13 percent profit margins and an eye-catching 112 percent ROE. Fifteen analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target only modestly above the current price, which leaves little margin once the debt burden is weighed properly.
The real risk is that any rise in interest costs or consumer pullback could expose the leverage quickly. Defensive demand helps, but it does not erase the structural problem flagged by the screen. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
KMB trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $114. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$99.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $114.
2026-07-03Markup$99.04+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$99.04Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
