Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-04
Options put/call open interest 1.37, read 2026-10-21
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price104.07 USD
Fair value129.28
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markup104.07+0.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markdown98.77+5.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution98.77+5.4% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup99.04+5.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Kimberly-Clark holds its Markup at $104.07. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 70 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 70 days
Price at the screen
$104.07
Valuation
20.29 trailing · 14.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.93%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Kimberly-Clark's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 43% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 24% discount to our $129.28 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 0.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Daily Essentials Hide a Heavy Debt Load
Every morning millions reach for the same brands of tissues and nappies without thinking twice. Yet behind those steady sales sits a balance sheet that already fails our ethical screen on debt. At a forward multiple of 14.3 times and revenue growth stuck at 3 percent, the numbers do not justify stepping around that red flag.
We pass for the straightforward reason that high leverage breaks the ethical test, even with a moderate moat, 13 percent profit margins and an eye-catching 112 percent ROE. Fifteen analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target only modestly above the current price, which leaves little margin once the debt burden is weighed properly.
The real risk is that any rise in interest costs or consumer pullback could expose the leverage quickly. Defensive demand helps, but it does not erase the structural problem flagged by the screen. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KMB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markup$104.07+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $115.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$104.07+5.4%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$98.77+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-09-03Markup$109.31-1.9%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $119.
2026-08-03Markup$111.44+12.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $114.
2026-07-18Markup$99.04+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $114.
2026-07-03Markup$99.04+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$99.04Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
