Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.47, read 2026-10-21
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price92.67 USD
Fair value90.88
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup92.67+0.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation86.06+7.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-02Read Markdown86.06+7.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-30Read Distribution89.70+3.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Colgate-Palmolive holds its Markup at $92.67. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$92.67
Valuation
35.37 trailing · 22.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 52.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.14%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.37%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Colgate-Palmolive's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 52% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $90.88 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Colgate's Toothpaste Empire Trips on Debt
Millions reach for Colgate each morning without thinking twice, yet the numbers show a business trading above its worth with a forward multiple of 22.9 times earnings against fair value of 90.31 while the share price sits at 92.98. Revenue growth of 8 percent and a 10 percent profit margin look steady, but the eye watering 364 percent ROE points straight to heavy leverage rather than pure operating strength. We pass because the price offers no margin of safety and the ethical screen flags the debt ratio outright.
A moderate moat in oral care and pet nutrition gives some durability, yet that does not offset the balance sheet concern or the thin cushion versus our calculated value. Twenty analysts may cluster around a 100 target and a buy rating, but our screen exists to filter out exactly these leverage risks before they become tomorrow's problem.
High debt leaves the company exposed if rates stay elevated or consumer spending softens, turning a seemingly defensive name into a less stable proposition than the label suggests. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Markup$92.67+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$92.67+0.0%Entry 18
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$92.67+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$92.67+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$92.67+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$92.67+7.7%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$86.06-4.1%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-31Markup$91.98+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.