The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Colgate-Palmolive
CL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $70.5B · 33,600 employees
Colgate-Palmolive Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells consumer products in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
88.41 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Colgate-Palmolive holds its Markdown at $88.41. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$88.41
Valuation
34.81 trailing · 21.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 52.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.14%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.37%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement (consumer campaigns)
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited in consumer boycott campaigns for maintaining consumer products distribution and operations in Israel. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $91.33 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 4.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Colgate's Toothpaste Empire Trips on Debt
Millions reach for Colgate each morning without thinking twice, yet the numbers show a business trading above its worth with a forward multiple of 22.9 times earnings against fair value of 90.31 while the share price sits at 92.98. Revenue growth of 8 percent and a 10 percent profit margin look steady, but the eye watering 364 percent ROE points straight to heavy leverage rather than pure operating strength. We pass because the price offers no margin of safety and the ethical screen flags the debt ratio outright.
A moderate moat in oral care and pet nutrition gives some durability, yet that does not offset the balance sheet concern or the thin cushion versus our calculated value. Twenty analysts may cluster around a 100 target and a buy rating, but our screen exists to filter out exactly these leverage risks before they become tomorrow's problem.
High debt leaves the company exposed if rates stay elevated or consumer spending softens, turning a seemingly defensive name into a less stable proposition than the label suggests. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-31Markup$91.98+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$91.98+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Accumulation$91.98-1.1%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Accumulation$92.98+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Accumulation$92.98+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Accumulation$92.98+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Accumulation$92.98+5.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$88.58+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-03Accumulation$88.58+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.