Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-28
Options put/call open interest 2.14, read 2026-10-21
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price107.19 USD
Fair value93.78
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-14Read Accumulation98.05+9.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown95.57+12.2% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-18Read Markup98.77+8.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 14% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-16Read Accumulation86.96+23.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Estée Lauder Companies (The) holds its Accumulation at $107.19. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$107.19
Valuation
210.18 trailing · 27.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.80%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Estée Lauder Companies (The)'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today EL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $93.78 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 6.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 12.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 28 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Luxury creams lose their shine on weak numbers
Walk down any high street and Estée Lauder products still sit on the shelves, yet the company is posting a negative profit margin and a negative return on equity. We pass because the shares trade at 25.8 times forward earnings while our fair value sits well below the current price and the business carries too much debt.
Revenue growth has slowed to just 5 percent and the moat looks weak, leaving little room for error if consumers trade down. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a clear fail, and that alone rules it out regardless of what the sell side says.
Analysts may still favour the name with a median target near 90 dollars, but peak margins and stretched valuations have trapped investors in similar consumer names before. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Accumulation$107.19+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$107.19+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$107.19+9.3%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$95.57-3.2%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-09-18Markup · changed$98.77+13.6%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-08-19Accumulation$86.96+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Accumulation$86.96+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$82.13-1.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.