An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $82.13
Estée Lauder Companies (The) holds its Markup at $82.13.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 24 days
Price
$82.13
Valuation
N/A trailing · 25.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.26
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 47.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 22.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $62.83 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 4.60% revenue growth.
Read at
$82.13
N/A P/E · 25.83 fwd
Our fair value
$62.83
24% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$90.00
+10% to current
Target low $70.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $125.00
▲ current $82.13 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$82.13
you are here
Conservative
$62.83
-23%
Analyst avg
$90.00
+10%
Our fair value
$62.83
-23%
Analyst high
$125.00
+52%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
4.60%
Profit margin
-1.67%
Debt to equity
232.91
Analyst consensus
Buy · 26 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Luxury creams lose their shine on weak numbers
Walk down any high street and Estée Lauder products still sit on the shelves, yet the company is posting a negative profit margin and a negative return on equity. We pass because the shares trade at 25.8 times forward earnings while our fair value sits well below the current price and the business carries too much debt.
Revenue growth has slowed to just 5 percent and the moat looks weak, leaving little room for error if consumers trade down. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a clear fail, and that alone rules it out regardless of what the sell side says.
Analysts may still favour the name with a median target near 90 dollars, but peak margins and stretched valuations have trapped investors in similar consumer names before. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
EL trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$83.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-07-03Markup$83.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$83.49Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · EL
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-02-27
DE LA FAVERIE STEPHANE
Chief Executive Officer
5,787
·
2026-02-27
SHRIVASTAVA AKHIL
Chief Financial Officer
5,265
·
2025-11-26
LAUDER JANE A
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
17,840
$1,596,145
2025-11-26
LA LANDE RASHIDA K
General Counsel
1,604
$151,498
2025-11-26
LAUDER JANE A
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security