Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price145.58 USD
Fair value141.11
Ethical score84.7/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-29Read Markdown142.97+1.8% to today
2026-07-03Read Distribution146.54-0.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Procter & Gamble holds its Accumulation at $145.58. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$145.58
Valuation
21.99 trailing · 19.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 84.7
Beta
0.38
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
28.32%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 28.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.57%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.56%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for consumer products operations in Israel. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $141.11 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 1.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Everyday Essentials with a Premium Price Tag
Imagine your local supermarket shelves filled with familiar brands - Pampers, Gillette, Tide - all part of Procter & Gamble's everyday essentials empire. The company's broad product range and global reach have made it a household name across the globe. The numbers back up its standing; steady 2% revenue growth, an 18% profit margin, and a robust 30% return on equity, all contributing to a solid moat that's moderate but effective.
Why it stands out, however, is its current valuation. At $142.97 a share, Procter & Gamble is priced above our fair value estimate of $140.55, indicating a slight overvaluation. Despite this, the consensus among 23 analysts is a 'buy' with a median target of $162, which is a testament to the company's reputation and performance. Yet, with a forward P/E of 19.3x, there's a溢价 to pay for this consumer staple.
Risks are present, as with any investment. The moderate moat suggests that while Procter & Gamble has a competitive advantage, it isn't impenetrable. The ethical screen passes, but the overvaluation poses a risk, especially in a crowded consumer goods market where new entrants and digital disruptors can challenge traditional giants.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-29Markdown · changed$142.97-3.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-07-28Distribution$147.41+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$147.41+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$147.41+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$147.41-1.7%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$149.98+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$149.98+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$149.98+2.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$146.54+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 5%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-07-03Distribution$146.54+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
