The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Caterpillar Inc. CAT
Clears the common standard
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Caterpillar Inc.
read at $888.73
Caterpillar Inc. holds its Distribution at $888.73.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days |
| Price | $888.73 |
| Valuation | 44.35 trailing · 29.18 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 1.57 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $791.04 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 22.20% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
| Revenue growth | 22.20% |
| Profit margin | 13.33% |
| Debt to equity | 230.79 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 26 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
Used by most halal investing apps ✓ PASSES
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 44.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 10.5%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 32.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Yellow machines built for tough sites
Every time a quarry expands or a highway crew starts work, Caterpillar's yellow rigs move the earth. Yet the shares sit well above our fair value with a forward multiple of 28.9 times and an ethical screen that fails on debt levels. We pass for both reasons.
The business shows solid 22 percent revenue growth and 51 percent return on equity, yet heavy machinery is cyclical and peak earnings often coincide with stretched multiples. Debt remains the decisive ethical red flag that rules the name out regardless of analyst targets.
A moderate moat and 13 percent margins do not offset the valuation gap or the balance sheet issue. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 29.2x priced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 44.3x expensive — the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| Revenue growth | 22.2% strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | 13.3% thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 51.3% an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 2.31 heavy leverage — higher risk if revenue softens |
| Current ratio | 1.35 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 1.57 much more volatile than the market |
| Market cap | $409.3B |
| Employees | 118,000 |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on CAT
- › Stock Market Today: Dow Up As These Stocks Test Entries; This AI Play Fights Back Before Key Event (Live Coverage) Investor's Business Daily · 1d ago
- › The Dow Had a Good Day. 2 Stealth AI Stocks Kept It From Being Great. Barrons.com · 1d ago
- › Prediction: Up 100% in a Year. Will CAT’s Rally Continue? 24/7 Wall St. · 1d ago
- › Michael Burry increases his bet against popular chip giant TheStreet · 2d ago
- › Rivian upgraded, Check Point downgrade: Wall Street's top analyst calls The Fly · 2d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in CAT's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CAT trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | JOHNSON DENISE C. | Officer | 16,078 | $3,162,543 | |
| 2026-05-14 | JOHNSON DENISE C. | Officer | 12,605 | $11,444,170 | |
| 2026-05-13 | JOHNSON DENISE C. | Officer | 7,900 | $1,553,930 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SCHAUPP WILLIAM E | Officer | 360 | $326,160 | |
| 2026-05-13 | JOHNSON DENISE C. | Officer | 6,196 | $5,637,081 | |
| 2026-05-11 | FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | 21,403 | $4,703,523 | |
| 2026-05-11 | FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | 16,283 | $14,928,266 | |
| 2026-05-08 | EPLEY KYLE JOSEPH | Chief Financial Officer | 515 | · | |
| 2026-05-06 | DE LANGE BOB | Officer | 28,105 | $3,586,198 | |
| 2026-05-06 | FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | 12,000 | $2,637,120 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb2025 | Tim Walberg | Republican | buy | 15K–50K |
| 30 Apr2026 | Dave McCormick | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 30 Apr2026 | Dave McCormick | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 26 May2026 | Dave McCormick | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 26 May2026 | Dave McCormick | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $926.79 | -7.4% | · | $926 | -7.4% |
| 2 months | $789.16 | +8.7% | $1.51 | $1,089 | +8.9% |
| 3 months | $699.36 | +22.7% | $1.51 | $1,229 | +22.9% |
| 6 months | $622.96 | +37.7% | $3.02 | $1,382 | +38.2% |
| 1 year | $354.73 | +141.8% | $6.04 | $2,435 | +143.5% |
| 2 years | $320.87 | +167.3% | $11.68 | $2,710 | +171.0% |
| 3 years | $224.64 | +281.9% | $16.88 | $3,894 | +289.4% |
| 5 years | $201.81 | +325.1% | $26.12 | $4,380 | +338.0% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.