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The Screen · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Deere & Company
DE · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $183.5B · 73,100 employees
Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
680.73 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Deere & Company holds its Markup at $680.73. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$680.73
Valuation
37.90 trailing · 30.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
60.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 60.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.48%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.89%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $580.10 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The Tractor Giant Stuck in a Quagmire
Picture this: Deere & Company, the heavyweight in the world of farm and heavy construction machinery, is akin to an industrial tractor stuck in the mud, with its current price of $620.94 vastly overshooting our fair value estimate of $539.25, indicating a -13% margin of safety. Why it stands out - or rather, why it's faltering - is the company's forward P/E of 27.8x, which paints a picture of an overvalued stock, especially considering its modest revenue growth of -11%.
The risk here is twofold: Deere's ethical failings, as it flunks our scrutiny on the debt ratio, and its financial performance, with a profit margin of merely 10% and an ROE of 18%, suggesting the company is not generating returns as efficiently as one might expect of a market leader in its domain. While the market consensus is a bullish 'buy' with a median target of $632, the risk sits around 60%, high, and largely driven by their debt exposure.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Markup$612.00+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-19Markup$612.00+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Markup$612.00+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Markup$612.00+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Markup$612.00+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-14Markup$612.00+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-13Markup · changed$612.00-2.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$628.16+7.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649.
2026-07-18Distribution$583.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649.
2026-07-03Distribution$583.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
