An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $628.16
Deere & Company holds its Markup at $628.16.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days
Price
$628.16
Valuation
35.63 trailing · 27.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.90
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $547.33 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Read at
$628.16
35.63 P/E · 27.63 fwd
Our fair value
$547.33
13% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$640.00
+2% to current
Target low $500.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $812.00
▲ current $628.16 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$628.16
you are here
Conservative
$450.00
-28%
Analyst avg
$640.00
+2%
Our fair value
$547.33
-13%
Analyst high
$812.00
+29%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
-11.10%
Profit margin
10.10%
Debt to equity
376.02
Analyst consensus
Buy · 23 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 60.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 28.6%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 12.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Yellow tractors hide a heavy debt load
Farmers still need reliable kit to plant and harvest, yet Deere trades at a premium that ignores shrinking sales. The company posts a forward P/E of 26.2 times while revenue fell 11 percent, leaving little margin of safety at the current price above our fair value. We pass because the numbers simply do not add up.
Profit margins sit at 10 percent and return on equity reaches 18 percent, but a moderate moat cannot offset the ethical screen failure on debt levels. Twenty three analysts may still favour the shares with a $640 median target, yet our reading stays clear on valuation and leverage.
The real risk is cyclical earnings peaking just as multiples stay stretched and balance sheet pressure builds. Debt has already tripped the ethical test, and any downturn in farm spending would expose the gap between price and value quickly. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
DE trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649. Entered 2026-07-26 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-26Distribution$628.16+7.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649.
2026-07-18Distribution$583.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $649.
2026-07-03Distribution$583.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$583.44Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
