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The Screen · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Paccar
PCAR · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $64.5B · 25,900 employees
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
122.50 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Paccar holds its Markdown at $122.50. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 281 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 281 days
Price at the screen
$122.50
Valuation
25.79 trailing · 17.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
35.27%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
7.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
63.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 63.3% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 16% discount to our $141.88 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 0.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trucks Haul Loads But Debt Trips the Screen
Picture a fleet of heavy trucks rumbling across continents, shifting goods through every weather. Paccar builds those trucks and the parts that keep them moving, yet revenue has already slipped 9 percent and the ethical screen flags too much debt for comfort. We pass because a narrow moat, 13 percent return on equity and a forward multiple of 18.4 times offer little margin once the cycle turns.
The real risk sits in the industry rhythm itself. Heavy truck demand rises and falls with freight volumes and interest rates, so today's 9 percent profit margin can shrink fast when orders dry up. Debt adds another layer that leaves little room if financing costs keep climbing.
Sixteen analysts still lean buy with a median target at the current price, but the ethical fail and slim four percent cushion to fair value keep us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PCAR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$122.50-8.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $126.
2026-08-08Markup · changed$133.34+14.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $126.
2026-07-18Distribution$116.68+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $126.
2026-07-03Distribution$116.68+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$116.68Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.