Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.15, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price534.63 USD
Fair value646.98
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Accumulation523.21+2.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown511.37+4.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Markup511.37+4.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 6% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-06Read Distribution544.31-1.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 9 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Murphy USA Inc. holds its Accumulation at $534.63. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 30 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 30 days
Price at the screen
$534.63
Valuation
16.57 trailing · 17.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
58.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 58.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Murphy USA's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 58% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today MUSA does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fuel Retailer Trades Well Above Fair Value
Picture the driver pulling into a roadside forecourt for fuel and a quick snack. Murphy USA runs those stores across the US, selling petrol and convenience items under its own brands. The business generates an impressive 80% return on equity and passes our ethical screen, yet revenue growth sits at just 7% with thin 3% profit margins.
We pass on the shares. At 21 times forward earnings the price of 618 dollars sits 20% above our fair value estimate, and the opportunity rating is none. Analyst targets cluster near the current level, offering little margin for error in a sector tied to fuel volumes and spending patterns.
Cyclical exposure remains the core concern. Low margins mean any drop in traffic or rise in costs hits profits fast, and a high multiple on peak earnings can trap investors rather than reward them. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MUSA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$542.74+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$542.74+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$542.74+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$542.74+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$542.74+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$542.74+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$542.74+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$542.74+3.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$511.37+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $558.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
