EAT · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.9B · 83,840 employees
Brinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, operates, and franchises casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
212.49 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Brinker International, Inc. holds its Distribution at $212.49. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$212.49
Valuation
19.57 trailing · 14.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
63.22%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 63.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 40.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Casual Dining Chain Shows Little Real Opportunity
Picture a Friday night table at Chili's where the bill covers wages, rent and a thin slice of profit. Brinker clears an 8 percent margin and grows revenue at just 3 percent a year, yet the shares already sit only a few dollars below the median analyst target of 190. That leaves almost no gap between today's price and what the street expects, which is why the opportunity rating stays at none despite the calculated 18 percent distance to fair value.
The 15 times forward earnings multiple looks reasonable next to a 139 percent return on equity, yet both numbers are common in this industry when buybacks and leases inflate returns without creating durable growth. Analysts are not rushing to raise targets, and the unknown moat offers no extra cushion when same-store sales stall.
Consumer cyclical exposure means margins can compress quickly in any slowdown, and low single-digit revenue growth gives little buffer once costs rise. The ethical screen passes without issue. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EAT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markup · changed$248.70+31.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 31.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 18.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-18Markup$159.32+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-03Markup$159.32+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$159.32Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
