The Screen · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $378.1B · 118,000 employees
Caterpillar Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
822.48 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Caterpillar Inc. holds its Distribution at $822.48. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$822.48
Valuation
35.45 trailing · 25.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.59
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.95%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
32.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 32.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement, AFSC Divest List
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement and AFSC for supplying bulldozers and heavy equipment used in demolition of Palestinian homes and infrastructure in the occupied territories. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $814.02 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 24.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bulldozing Ahead with Rising Debts
Imagine the sight of a Caterpillar Inc. bulldozer at work on a construction site; powerful, indispensable, yet also a costly addition to a project's balance sheet. Caterpillar's financials are not too different, with the company boasting a 24% revenue growth and a 15% profit margin. However, this machinery giant's glaring issue is its debt, which has caused it to fail our ethical screen.
Why we're passing on Caterpillar despite its robust financial performance is straightforward: its debt ratio. With a forward P/E of 25.3x and a fair value just below its current market price, the high debt level puts a strain on the company's financial health, overshadowing its 57% return on equity and moderate moat. While the market consensus is bullish with a median target of $980, the ethical red flag is a concern.
Risks are manifold - the debt burden is high, and the industrial sector is cyclical. With peak earnings potentially being recorded, the low multiple could be a value trap rather than a bargain. Add to this the company's failure on our ethical screen due to its debt ratio, and it's clear that while Caterpillar may bulldoze through construction sites, it stumbles over our investment criteria. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CAT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Distribution$815.39-8.3%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920.
2026-08-04Distribution$888.73+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Distribution$888.73+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Distribution$888.73+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$888.73+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Distribution$888.73+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Distribution$888.73+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$880.28-2.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920.
2026-07-18Markup$904.28+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 142%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $920.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
