Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Bank of Montreal holds its Distribution at $175.05. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$175.05
Valuation
19.76 trailing · 14.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near today's price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Banking Beneath the Maple Leaf
Think of Bank of Montreal as the foundation of Canadian finance, a cornerstone of economic stability. With revenue growth at 16%, it stands out as a solid player in the financial sector, leveraging its domestic market prowess. Its forward P/E of 14.7x hints at a market that's somewhat skeptical, yet its profit margin of 28%, and ROE of 11%, suggest it's performing well above average, potentially undervalued.
However, while the numbers are promising, we must recognize the elephant in the room—Bank of Montreal fails our ethical screen. Its business activity is at odds with our ethical-first investment criteria, which is a crucial part of our analysis. It's a stark reminder that not all financial success translates to ethical alignment, an important factor in today's investment landscape.
In conclusion, despite the attractive valuation and growth prospects, Bank of Montreal does not align with our ethical standards, leading us to pass on this opportunity. Staying true to our principles is paramount, even when tempted by financial metrics. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BMO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Distribution$172.90+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $167. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$172.90+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$172.90+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Distribution$172.90+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Accumulation$180.94+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-19Accumulation$180.94+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$181.97+10.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145.
2026-07-18Markup$164.37+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $145.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
