Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South Americ…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
191.45 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Toyota Motor holds its Accumulation at $191.45. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 191 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 191 days
Price at the screen
$191.45
Valuation
8.66 trailing · 12.13 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio 41.4%
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
9.60%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 9.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.69%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.51%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate, Who Profits Corporate Database
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate / Who Profits Corporate Database — category: Population Control | Specialized Equipment and Services. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $183.42 fair value estimate, 10.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Toyota's Value Trap in a Cyclical Downturn
When you think of wheels and engines, Toyota's name rolls off the tongue. It's a household name designing, manufacturing and selling vehicles across continents, from minivans to commercial juggernauts. But, in the cyclical world of automobiles, a low P/E can be a mirage, not a bargain. Toyota is showing one now with a forward P/E of 12.2x, which might look appealing at first glance, but its cyclical nature could mean peak earnings are being priced in, not a sustainable value.
The numbers tell a tale of a business that's doing well, with a revenue growth of 10% and a decent profit margin of 9%. However, the ethical screen is a red flag here. Toyota fails, primarily due to its debt ratio of 41.4%, a critical factor in our assessment. Combine this with the cyclical nature of the industry, and the value trap becomes a significant risk. The market consensus, represented by four analysts with no consensus rating, sees a median target of $234. Yet, our fair value sits at $183.42, reflecting a margin of safety of -5%, indicating that the current price is above our estimated intrinsic value.
Risk is high here, and it's not just about the numbers. The debt ratio fails our ethical screen, and the cyclical nature of the auto industry means that what looks like a low P/E could be a warning sign rather than a buying opportunity. It's a classic case of where the ethical and financial risks align, pushing us to avoid. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TM trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257.
2026-08-06Markup$185.89+4.8%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Markup$177.42+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$177.42+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$177.42+0.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Distribution$177.42+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$177.42+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Distribution$177.42+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markdown$174.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $257.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
