Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price372.11 USD
Fair value216.68
Ethical score80.1/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown372.11+0.0% to today
2026-07-03Read Accumulation391.00-4.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Tesla, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $372.11. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 223 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 223 days
Price at the screen
$372.11
Valuation
338.28 trailing · 171.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 80.1
Beta
1.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.68%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
19.99%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 20.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.77%
Below 5%
Only 1.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Tesla, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 11%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-09. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $216.68 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 25.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 41.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 38 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Tesla's Electric Ride Hits Cyclical Bump
Tesla's cars are as popular as ever, but the company's stock price is currently charging on the high side of reality. Despite the company's impressive 26% revenue growth, the stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 158.7x, which is far above the industry average. The reason it stands out as one to avoid is the combination of high valuation and the cyclical nature of the auto industry. Tesla's peak earnings and low multiple might seem like a bargain, but it's more of a warning sign of a potential cyclical value trap.
The risks are not just tied to valuation. Tesla's profit margin is a slim 4%, and a return on equity of just 5% doesn't inspire confidence. These figures are underpinned by a weak competitive moat, suggesting that while Tesla leads the electric vehicle market now, it may not be able to maintain its dominance as competitors catch up. The consensus rating of 'buy' from 40 analysts might seem reassuring, but their median target price of $415 is far from our fair value estimate of $216.69, indicating a potential disconnect between market optimism and underlying financials.
Tesla's ethical screen passes, which is a positive, but when considering the cyclical sector's pitfalls and the stock's stratospheric valuation, the prudent investor may want to keep their foot on the brake. This is particularly important as we consider the cyclical nature of the auto industry and the potential for earnings to drop in the next economic downturn.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TSLA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$372.11+7.8%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-23Accumulation$345.13-9.4%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-22Accumulation$380.84+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$380.84+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Accumulation$380.84+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Accumulation$380.84-2.6%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$391.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Accumulation$391.00+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Accumulation$391.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Accumulation$391.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
