An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Tesla, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $380.84
Tesla, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $380.84.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 223 days
Price
$380.84
Valuation
346.22 trailing · 149.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 80.1
Beta
1.80
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard — its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 10.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 20.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $240.79 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 15.80% revenue growth.
Read at
$380.84
346.22 P/E · 149.11 fwd
Our fair value
$240.79
37% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$460.00
+21% to current
Target low $125.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $600.00
▲ current $380.84 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$380.84
you are here
Conservative
$190.42
-50%
Analyst avg
$460.00
+21%
Our fair value
$240.79
-37%
Analyst high
$600.00
+58%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
15.80%
Profit margin
3.95%
Debt to equity
18.74
Analyst consensus
Buy · 39 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Electric cars priced far beyond their profits
Walk past any Tesla showroom and the excitement feels real, with buyers chasing the next battery upgrade or self driving promise. That appeal fades fast once you check the numbers, because shares trade at 149 times forward earnings against our fair value that sits 37 percent lower.
We pass for straightforward reasons. Revenue growth has cooled to 16 percent, profit margins sit at only 4 percent and return on equity is stuck at 5 percent, all inside a business with a weak moat. The auto sector is cyclical, so stretched multiples like this often signal peak expectations rather than a bargain.
Demand swings can hit hard when rivals flood the market with cheaper models, and thin returns leave little cushion if volumes slow. The buy consensus from analysts does not change the gap between price and value.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
TSLA trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-19 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-19Accumulation$380.84-2.6%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$391.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Accumulation$391.00+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Accumulation$391.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (41 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $412. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Accumulation$391.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$391.00Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
