An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $119.78
The Toronto-Dominion Bank holds its Markup at $119.78.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price
$119.78
Valuation
19.83 trailing · 15.70 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.88
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$119.78
19.83 P/E · 15.70 fwd
Our fair value
$113.40
5% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$112.36
-6% to current
Target low $96.54Analyst target rangeTarget high $128.77
▲ current $119.78 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$119.78
you are here
Conservative
$86.89
-27%
Analyst avg
$112.36
-6%
Our fair value
$113.40
-5%
Analyst high
$128.77
+8%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
-31.50%
Profit margin
25.19%
Analyst consensus
Buy · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
A bank that trips its own ethics test
Picture your pay cheque moving through the big Canadian banks without a hitch. TD looks like the reliable option on paper until the ethical screen flags it for business activity that crosses the line. We pass for that reason alone, even before noting the shares trade 8 percent above our fair value.
Revenue has dropped 32 percent while the forward multiple sits at 16.1 times and return on equity is a middling 12 percent. Profit margins remain healthy at 25 percent and the moat is moderate, yet three analysts still peg a median target below the current price. None of the usual metrics change the ethical outcome.
The real risk is that the failed screen reflects ongoing exposure rather than a one-off issue, and any cyclical slowdown in lending would hit earnings quickly. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
TD trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$113.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-03Markup$113.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$113.16Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
