The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
TransAlta Corporation
TAC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.0B · 1,350 employees
TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
12.64 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-26
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 08:38 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
TransAlta Corporation holds its Markdown at $12.64. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 133 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 133 days
Price at the screen
$12.64
Valuation
N/A trailing · 31.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.48
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
50.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.62%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.12%
Below 5%
Only 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 23.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Canadian power firm priced far above value
Picture a utility selling electricity from hydro dams and wind farms across Alberta while posting shrinking revenue and deepening losses. TransAlta shows exactly that picture today. Revenue fell 26 percent, profit margins sit at negative 8 percent, and return on equity is negative 11 percent. The shares trade at 34 times forward earnings against our fair value of 8.34 dollars, a 37 percent premium that leaves no margin of safety and earns a none rating.
We pass because the numbers do not support the price. Two analysts still say buy with a 13 dollar median target, yet the business is contracting and unprofitable. An ethical screen pass removes one objection, but valuation and fundamentals remain decisive.
The main risk is that negative growth persists while the market continues to ignore the gap between price and value. Utilities can face regulatory and weather swings that widen losses further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TAC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-14Markdown · changed$12.43-7.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Accumulation$13.39+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Accumulation$13.39+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$13.39Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
