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The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
NRG Energy
NRG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $24.3B · 16,702 employees
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
115.37 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:36 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
NRG Energy holds its Distribution at $115.37. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$115.37
Valuation
30.04 trailing · 10.30 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.05%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.11%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 54% discount to our $177.47 fair value, weak competitive moat, 11.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 53.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +62% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Power Utility Trips on Heavy Debt
Picture a power station running flat out yet still owing the bank more than it can comfortably service. NRG Energy sits in that spot. Revenue is rising fast at 20 percent, yet the company clears only a 1 percent profit margin and returns just 6 percent on equity. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio immediately, so we pass.
The forward multiple of 11.2 times earnings looks cheap next to the $186 fair value, and Wall Street still carries a buy rating with a $200 median target. None of that offsets the weak moat or the fact that low returns and thin margins leave little room for error when interest rates stay higher for longer.
High leverage remains the core problem here. In a sector where fuel costs and weather swing wildly, stretched balance sheets turn modest downturns into lasting pain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NRG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$113.11-6.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$120.73-6.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
2026-07-18Distribution$129.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
2026-07-03Distribution$129.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$129.20Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
