Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.81, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price83.25 USD
Fair value162.10
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution83.25+0.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 4 days
2026-11-01Read Markup96.06-13.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-11Read Distribution97.00-14.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 14% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-08Read Markdown113.11-26.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NRG Energy holds its Distribution at $83.25. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days
Price at the screen
$83.25
Valuation
25.15 trailing · 9.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.05%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.11%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NRG Energy's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 57% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 41% discount to our $162.10 fair value, weak competitive moat, 11.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 48.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $162.10, with a range of $118.65 to $192.52, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 11%-growth business trading at just 9.1x forward earnings, with a weak competitive moat. That is a 41% discount to our $162.10 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 18 analysts rate it Strong Buy with a $166.00 average target, about 99% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NRG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markup$96.26+0.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$96.06+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$96.06+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup · changed$96.06-7.4%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
2026-10-25Distribution$103.75+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
2026-10-18Distribution$103.75+7.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
2026-10-02Markdown$97.00-14.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$113.11-6.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $201.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
