Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price40.18 USD
Fair value80.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Markdown39.52+1.7% to today
2026-08-07Read Distribution41.09-2.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup57.49-30.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Oklo Inc holds its Markdown at $40.18. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$40.18
Valuation
N/A trailing · -37.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.09%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
51.91%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 51.9% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Oklo's business is fine, but its receivables are about 52% of its assets, just over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 99.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +99% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Small Reactors Promise Power but Deliver Losses
Picture a gigafactory owner hunting for steady carbon-free electricity in the middle of nowhere. Oklo wants to drop compact fission plants on site to deliver it, recycling fuel along the way. The idea sits in a sector starved of new reliable supply, yet the numbers tell a different story right now.
The business has yet to turn a profit, carries negative return on equity and trades on a deeply negative forward multiple. Analysts see upside to roughly double the current price, but an unproven reactor design and narrow competitive edge leave the opportunity rating at none despite clearing the ethical screen.
Execution risk is high because any delay in licensing or first deployments will burn cash fast in a capital-heavy industry. Currency or policy shifts matter less than whether these plants ever reach commercial scale on time. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OKLO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$40.18+1.7%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$39.52-3.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 28.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-07-18Markup$57.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-07-03Markup$57.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$57.49Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
