STX · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $205.0B · 30,000 employees
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
904.38 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Seagate Technology holds its Markup at $904.38. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$904.38
Valuation
64.92 trailing · 16.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
2.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.26%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.27%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 43% discount to our $1,294.83 fair value, strong competitive moat, 48.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 43.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Data Storage Giant with a Heavy Debt Load
When you think of data storage, Seagate's name often comes up. It's a staple in a world where every bit of information needs a place to live. Picture a digital skyscraper, Seagate is building the floors. Why it stands out? The company's revenue is growing at a robust 48% clip, and profitability, indicated by a 26% profit margin and a 372% return on equity, is impressive. The valuation looks tempting too, with the stock trading at a forward P/E of 15.4x, below our fair value of $1294.83, presenting a significant margin of safety at +52%.
However, despite this apparent value, the market consensus is a strong buy with a median target of $1150, which is still below our fair value. The risk here is clear and significant - Seagate fails our ethical screen due to a concerning debt ratio. In the tech world, where balance sheets can often be leveraged to fund growth, Seagate’s debt levels are a red flag, suggesting a potential instability that could overshadow its operational strengths.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Singapore and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STX trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Singapore). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-29Markup$850.24-0.2%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815.
2026-07-28Markup$851.69+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$851.69+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$851.69+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$851.69+8.1%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$787.66+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$787.66+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$787.66+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$787.66-7.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$847.47+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
