NAS10028,945+0.02%S&P7,552−0.45%GOLD$4,296−0.86%BTC$75,632+0.03%VIX17.71+2.97%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 16 Sep
The Screen · Technology · Computer Hardware
Supermicro
SMCI · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $25.6B · 6,238 employees
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
38.93 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 16 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Supermicro holds its Markdown at $38.93. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$38.93
Valuation
11.94 trailing · 7.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
2.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.09%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.80%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
52.60%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 52.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 37% discount to our $53.12 fair value, weak competitive moat, 93.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
AI servers tempt but ethics block the way
Servers for AI training roll out of Supermicro factories at a furious pace with revenue up 123 percent. The 7.7 times forward earnings multiple screams value next to that surge. We pass for one clear reason.
Profit margins of 4 percent and a weak moat tell the real story behind the numbers. Fair value sits at 44 dollars yet the debt ratio blocks any interest.
Analyst targets cluster around 36 dollars and the ethical screen failure seals the decision. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SMCI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 28.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 27.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-07-18Markup$41.64+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-07-03Markup$41.64+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$41.64Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
