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The Screen · Technology · Computer Hardware
Supermicro
SMCI · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $21.3B · 6,238 employees
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
32.95 USD
Price as of 30 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-30 · the tape above runs as of 16:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.28, read 2026-10-29
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price32.95 USD
Fair value56.25
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markdown31.63+4.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 19% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-13Read Accumulation38.93-15.4% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 28% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-13Read Distribution30.32+8.7% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 27% slide in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup41.64-20.9% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Supermicro holds its Markdown at $32.95. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 36 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 36 days
Price at the screen
$32.95
Valuation
10.11 trailing · 5.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
2.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.09%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.80%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
52.60%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 52.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.48%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Supermicro's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens. Its receivables are also high.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today SMCI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 71% discount to our $56.25 fair value, weak competitive moat, 93.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 70.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $56.25, with a range of $56.25 to $65.90, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
AI servers tempt but ethics block the way
Servers for AI training roll out of Supermicro factories at a furious pace with revenue up 123 percent. The 7.7 times forward earnings multiple screams value next to that surge. We pass for one clear reason.
Profit margins of 4 percent and a weak moat tell the real story behind the numbers. Fair value sits at 44 dollars yet the debt ratio blocks any interest.
Analyst targets cluster around 36 dollars and the ethical screen failure seals the decision. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SMCI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$32.95+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$32.95+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$32.94+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$32.94+4.1%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$31.63+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$31.63+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown · changed$31.63+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-10-18Accumulation$31.63-24.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 24.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-10-11Accumulation$41.78+0.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-10-02Accumulation$41.78+7.3%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
