An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $28.45
Supermicro holds its Distribution at $28.45.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days
Price
$28.45
Valuation
15.72 trailing · 8.59 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.94
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 60% discount to our $45.62 fair value, weak competitive moat, 122.70% revenue growth.
Read at
$28.45
15.72 P/E · 8.59 fwd
Our fair value
$45.62
60% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$36.50
+28% to current
Target low $15.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $58.00
▲ current $28.45 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$28.45
you are here
Conservative
$45.62
+60%
Analyst avg
$36.50
+28%
Our fair value
$45.62
+60%
Analyst high
$58.00
+104%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
122.70%
Profit margin
3.70%
Debt to equity
120.80
Analyst consensus
Hold · 16 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 34.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 52.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
AI servers tempt but ethics block the way
Servers for AI training roll out of Supermicro factories at a furious pace with revenue up 123 percent. The 7.7 times forward earnings multiple screams value next to that surge. We pass for one clear reason.
Profit margins of 4 percent and a weak moat tell the real story behind the numbers. Fair value sits at 44 dollars yet the debt ratio blocks any interest.
Analyst targets cluster around 36 dollars and the ethical screen failure seals the decision. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
SMCI trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$41.64+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-07-03Markup$41.64+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$41.64Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · SMCI
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-05-08
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
6,218
·
2026-05-08
LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
6,218
·
2026-05-08
CHEUNG KENNETH
Officer
1,250
·
2026-05-08
CLEGG DON W
Officer
2,310
·
2026-05-08
WEIGAND DAVID E
Chief Financial Officer
4,170
·
2026-05-08
XIAO JIN
Officer
6,068
·
2026-02-27
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
20,980
$88,850
2026-02-27
LIANG CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
20,980
$88,850
2026-02-17
LIU LIANG CHIU-CHU SARA
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
