Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.84, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price30.04 USD
Fair value60.08
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markdown34.73-13.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 25% slide in 7 weeks
2026-09-02Read Accumulation46.26-35.1% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 37% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-02Read Distribution33.88-11.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 41% slide in 4 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup57.85-48.1% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
IonQ Inc holds its Markdown at $30.04. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$30.04
Valuation
N/A trailing · -23.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
3.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.46%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
20.72%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 20.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
43.07%
Below 5%
43.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
IonQ clears the business-activity screen, and its debt is near-nil. Where it falls short is income purity: around 43% of its income right now is interest earned on a large cash position, against a roughly 5% ceiling, so it does not pass. That reflects what it earns today, not the business itself, and it could clear the screen if its operating revenue grows and the interest share falls.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when IONQ's ethical verdict changes
Today IONQ does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $60.08, with a range of $41.85 to $60.08, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Quantum Growth Story Hides Persistent Losses
Imagine booking time on a machine that can solve problems no ordinary computer can touch. IonQ sells exactly that access through cloud partners, and its revenue has jumped 755 percent while the ethical screen clears without issue.
Yet the opportunity rating sits at none. Forward earnings stay negative at minus 31.6 times, the moat is narrow, and return on equity barely clears 11 percent. A reported profit margin of 175 percent looks more like an accounting spike than a repeatable result.
Analysts may cluster around a 68 dollar target, but the business still depends on early-stage hardware that has not proved durable economics. High growth alone does not offset the fragility. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IONQ trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$30.04-3.9%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$31.27+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$31.27+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$31.27+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$31.27-10.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$34.73-16.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 16.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-10-11Accumulation$41.34+2.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-10-02Accumulation$40.51-12.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 36.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 41.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $68.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
