An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Arista Networks, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $173.99
Arista Networks holds its Markup at $173.99.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 10 days
Price
$173.99
Valuation
59.79 trailing · 38.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.60
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $155.58 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 35.10% revenue growth.
Read at
$173.99
59.79 P/E · 38.95 fwd
Our fair value
$155.58
11% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$195.00
+12% to current
Target low $164.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $220.00
▲ current $173.99 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$173.99
you are here
Conservative
$147.60
-15%
Analyst avg
$195.00
+12%
Our fair value
$155.58
-11%
Analyst high
$220.00
+26%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
35.10%
Profit margin
38.32%
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 27 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 36.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are 45.1% of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 19.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 4.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Arista Powers AI but We Pass
Arista sells the networking gear that keeps AI data centres talking to each other. Revenue is growing at 35 percent with 38 percent profit margins and 32 percent return on equity, yet the shares trade at 37.7 times forward earnings and sit 9 percent above our fair value. On top of that the business fails our ethical screen because of its debt ratio, so the strong moat and bullish analyst targets do not move the needle.
The market loves the story and the consensus points to further gains, but we judge the price already bakes in perfection. Paying a premium for growth is one thing. Paying it while also failing a basic debt test is another.
Risk sits in the valuation first and the leverage second. If growth slows or interest costs rise, the multiple can compress quickly. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ANET trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-31 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-31Markup$173.99+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$173.99+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup · changed$173.99+3.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$168.61+9.3%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188.
2026-07-18Distribution$154.27+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188.
2026-07-17Distribution$154.27+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188.
2026-07-03Distribution$154.27+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$154.27Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.