NAS10028,945+0.02%S&P7,552−0.45%GOLD$4,296−0.86%BTC$75,632+0.03%VIX17.71+2.97%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 16 Sep
The Screen · Technology · Computer Hardware
Arista Networks
ANET · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $245.9B · 5,115 employees
Arista Networks, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
194.96 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 16 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Arista Networks holds its Markdown at $194.96. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$194.96
Valuation
61.70 trailing · 37.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
45.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 45.1% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
19.80%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.26%
Below 5%
Only 4.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $190.33 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 37.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 2.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 28 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cloud Network Giant Flies Too Close to the Debt Sun
When you think of the cloud, the name Arista Networks might not immediately spring to mind. But behind every cloud service, whether it's AI or data centers, Arista Networks is there, ensuring the seamless flow of information. It's the backbone of a digital world, and it's growing revenue at a robust 38%, with a profit margin that matches its forward P/E at 38%. Why we're steering clear, though, is a matter of financial prudence. Despite its strong market position and a moat that would make any competitor envious, Arista Networks fails our ethical screen due to a debt ratio that's out of line with our standards.
The market has spoken with a strong buy consensus from 27 analysts, and their median target price is a lofty $248, which implies a significant upside from the current $183.75. However, our fair value sits slightly higher at $191.07, offering a slim margin of safety. But with a debt ratio that's a red flag, we can't justify the risk, even with the tantalizing potential returns.
Risk here is twofold: the lofty valuation suggested by the market, and the ethical failing on debt. While the business performs well on metrics like ROE at 31%, the ethical failing is a non-starter for us. This is not a call to sell if you already hold; it's a caution for those looking to buy. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ANET trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188.
2026-08-04Markup$173.99+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$173.99+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$173.99+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$173.99+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$173.99+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$173.99+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup · changed$173.99+3.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$168.61+9.3%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188.
2026-07-18Distribution$154.27+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (27 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $188.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.