Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-04
Options put/call open interest 0.46, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price211.63 USD
Fair value165.69
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup203.39+4.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after an 8% slide in 8 weeks
2026-09-03Read Markdown219.90-3.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup210.31+0.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Simon Property Group holds its Markup at $211.63. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$211.63
Valuation
14.50 trailing · 30.03 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
71.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 71.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
15.74%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 15.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Simon Property's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 72% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $165.69 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 19.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Malls Draw Crowds But Debt Raises Flags
Picture packed shopping centres on a Saturday and it is easy to assume the retail property business is back on track. Simon Property Group shows a strong moat, 19 percent revenue growth, 71 percent profit margins and 114 percent ROE, yet we pass because the shares trade at 33.9 times forward earnings against a fair value well below the current price and the ethical screen flags excessive debt.
That debt burden sits at the centre of the problem. A high valuation leaves little room for error if consumer spending slows or interest costs rise, and the ethical failure on leverage rules the name out regardless of analyst buy ratings or a median target near the current level.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SPG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markup$211.63+4.1%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$203.39+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-10-21Markdown$203.39+2.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-10-14Markdown$199.42-2.6%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-10-02Markdown$204.82-6.9%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-09-03Markdown · changed$219.90-4.3%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-08-03Markup$229.78+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$229.78+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$229.78+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$229.78+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
