The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Simon Property Group SPG
Outside both standards
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Simon Property Group, Inc.
read at $229.78
Simon Property Group holds its Markup at $229.78.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
- INInsiders · insiders bought, latest filing 2026-06-30
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days |
| Price | $229.78 |
| Valuation | 15.97 trailing · 34.09 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 1.33 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $163.92 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 19.30% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
| Revenue growth | 19.30% |
| Profit margin | 70.59% |
| Debt to equity | 457.47 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 19 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 71.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Fail
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 15.7% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 4.3% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Malls Draw Crowds But Debt Raises Flags
Picture packed shopping centres on a Saturday and it is easy to assume the retail property business is back on track. Simon Property Group shows a strong moat, 19 percent revenue growth, 71 percent profit margins and 114 percent ROE, yet we pass because the shares trade at 33.9 times forward earnings against a fair value well below the current price and the ethical screen flags excessive debt.
That debt burden sits at the centre of the problem. A high valuation leaves little room for error if consumer spending slows or interest costs rise, and the ethical failure on leverage rules the name out regardless of analyst buy ratings or a median target near the current level.
Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 34.1x priced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 16.0x reasonably valued |
| Revenue growth | 19.3% steady growth |
| Profit margin | 70.6% highly profitable on every dollar of sales |
| Return on equity | 113.6% an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 4.57 heavy leverage — higher risk if revenue softens |
| Current ratio | 0.20 below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 1.33 moves a little more than the market |
| Market cap | $87.3B |
| Employees | 3,100 |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on SPG
- › Realty Income Boosts Liquidity: What Does This Mean for Growth? Zacks · 15d ago
- › Realty Income's Europe Push: Will It Drive Long-Term Growth Ahead? Zacks · 16d ago
- › Simon Property Group's Quarterly Earnings Preview: What You Need to Know Barchart · 16d ago
- › This Mall REIT Yields Over 4% And Is Up More Than 21% This Year, Wall Street Just Downgraded It Anyway 24/7 Wall St. · 19d ago
- › Simon Property Group (SPG) Downgraded at Wolfe Research. Here is Why Insider Monkey · 21d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in SPG's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
SPG trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $214.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Selig Stefan M | Dir | Purchase | 220 | $1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Leibowitz Reuben S | Dir | Purchase | 508 | $1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Glasscock Larry C | Dir | Purchase | 397 | $1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stewart Marta R | Dir | Purchase | 182 | $1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Smith Daniel C. | Dir | Purchase | 372 | $1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Rodkin Gary M | Dir | Purchase | 256 | $1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Aeppel Glyn | Dir | Purchase | 243 | $1 |
| 2026-05-13 | GLASSCOCK LARRY C | Director | 1,233 | · | |
| 2026-05-13 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | Director | 1,159 | · | |
| 2026-05-13 | RODKIN GARY M | Director | 1,073 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Bill Keating | Democrat | Purchase | 1K–15K |
| 2026-04-20 | Jonathan Jackson | Democrat | Purchase | 15K–50K |
| 20 Apr2026 | Jonathan Jackson | Democrat | buy | 15K–50K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $198.82 | +7.0% | $2.25 | $1,082 | +8.2% |
| 2 months | $198.39 | +7.3% | $2.25 | $1,084 | +8.4% |
| 3 months | $185.53 | +14.7% | $2.25 | $1,159 | +15.9% |
| 6 months | $177.82 | +19.7% | $4.45 | $1,222 | +22.2% |
| 1 year | $153.59 | +38.6% | $8.80 | $1,443 | +44.3% |
| 2 years | $138.14 | +54.1% | $17.15 | $1,665 | +66.5% |
| 3 years | $95.00 | +124.0% | $24.90 | $2,502 | +150.2% |
| 5 years | $101.75 | +109.1% | $40.00 | $2,485 | +148.5% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.