ADC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.9B · 90 employees
Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
71.23 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Agree Realty Corporation holds its Markdown at $71.23. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$71.23
Valuation
38.30 trailing · 36.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.42%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Retail Landlord Trades Far Above Its Worth
Picture a landlord collecting steady rents from big retail names yet asking investors to pay top dollar for modest returns. Agree Realty shows 19% revenue growth and a 29% profit margin, yet trades at 42 times forward earnings while delivering just 4% return on equity. Our fair value sits 29% below the current price, so the numbers do not support ownership.
We pass because the valuation leaves no margin of safety. Analysts may like the story and set targets near 84, but a high multiple on low returns on equity signals the market has already paid up for growth that may not last. The ethical screen is clear, yet price matters more here.
Interest rate moves or shifts in retail tenant health could quickly pressure the premium. Low returns on equity already hint at limited pricing power once costs rise. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ADC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85.
2026-07-20Markdown$81.12+7.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85.
2026-07-18Markdown$75.83+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85.
2026-07-16Markdown$75.83+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85.
2026-07-03Markdown$75.83+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$75.83Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.