Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Royal Bank of Canada holds its Distribution at $209.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$209.00
Valuation
18.24 trailing · 16.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Treading Water, Royal Bank Misses Ethics Mark
Think of the Royal Bank of Canada as a sturdy canoe in still waters - stable and secure, but not exactly setting the world alight. At a price of $205.21, it sits just below our fair value of $206.41, offering a slim margin of safety that's not enough to make waves. Why it stands out, or rather why it doesn't, is the forward P/E ratio that's just slightly less appetizing than what you'd expect for a company with a moderate moat, and revenue growth that while robust, isn't exceptional.
However, what really sinks the Royal Bank of Canada's appeal is its failure on our ethical screen, specifically in the area of business activity. This isn't a matter of valuation or financial performance; it's a clear case where, despite its financials, the bank is steered away from by our ethical-first approach. It's a situation where the canoe, while sturdy, is pointed in the wrong direction. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Distribution$205.21+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Distribution$205.21+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$205.21+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $176. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$205.21+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $176. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Markup$205.21+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $176. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Markup$205.21-2.9%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $176. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markup$211.27+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $176. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-12Markup$211.27+8.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $176.
2026-07-18Markup$194.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $176.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
