Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.31, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price18.54 USD
Fair value37.08
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Distribution19.10-2.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 24% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown25.24-26.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 18% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-11Read Accumulation30.76-39.7% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-11Read Markup28.62-35.2% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 20% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Arcus Biosciences, Inc. holds its Distribution at $18.54. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 66 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 66 days
Price at the screen
$18.54
Valuation
N/A trailing · -6.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.83%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.55%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
16.60%
Below 5%
16.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Arcus Biosciences, clears the business-activity screen, and its debt is inside the line. Where it falls short is income purity: around 17% of its income right now is interest earned on a large cash position, against a roughly 5% ceiling, so it does not pass. That reflects what it earns today, not the business itself, and it could clear the screen if its operating revenue grows and the interest share falls.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today RCUS does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +143% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cancer Drug Hope Faces Shrinking Sales and Losses
Picture a lab racing to beat kidney cancer while the cash register rings backwards every quarter. Arcus Biosciences sits at that stage, a clinical developer whose revenue has already fallen 39 percent and whose profit margin sits at minus 156 percent. Our fair value sits above the current price, yet the opportunity rating stays at none because the numbers refuse to support a case.
The business is still pre-commercial, with a forward P/E of minus 8.8 times reflecting ongoing losses and an ROE of minus 70 percent. Twelve analysts see a median target near our own figure, but they attach no consensus rating. An ethical screen clears the name, yet that alone does not turn a high-burn clinical programme into a durable holding.
Risk sits in the trial outcomes themselves. Unknown moat, negative growth and repeated cash outflows leave little room for the inevitable setbacks that hit early-stage cancer drugs. One failed readout could erase the apparent margin of safety quickly.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RCUS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$19.10+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$19.10-15.2%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$22.53+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$22.53-7.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$24.41-3.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$25.24-17.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 17.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-08-11Markup · changed$28.62+20.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Markdown$23.80+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 122%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
