Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price7.90 USD
Fair value39.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Distribution8.40-6.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown24.15-67.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alumis Inc. holds its Markdown at $7.90. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$7.90
Valuation
N/A trailing · -2.92 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.79
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
8.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
53.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 53.1% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
22.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
58.96%
Below 5%
59.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Alumis's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 53% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 393.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +305% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Biotech Pipeline Hopes Fail Our Basic Test
Picture a lab team staking everything on one TYK2 pill for psoriasis and lupus. That is Alumis today, a clinical-stage name with no approved products and revenue already shrinking fast. We pass despite a fair value gap and a clean ethical screen because the underlying business shows zero profits, deeply negative returns on equity and a forward multiple that simply reflects expected losses.
Analysts see upside to around forty dollars and rate the shares a strong buy, yet those calls rest on future trial data that may or may not arrive. Current metrics paint a firm still burning cash with no moat visible and growth running sharply negative. The valuation gap looks attractive on paper but offers little protection when the next readout disappoints.
Risks sit mainly in binary trial outcomes, dilution and the usual biotech cash burn, all of which explain why the opportunity rating stays at none. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALMS trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$7.90-6.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 507%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $40.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 69.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 507%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-08-21Markdown$27.60-3.7%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 507%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-21Markdown$28.66+18.7%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 18.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 507%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-18Markdown$24.15+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 507%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-17Markdown$24.15+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 507%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-03Markdown$24.15+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$24.15Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
