Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.55 USD
Fair value25.10
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-05Read Markdown15.53-19.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup18.69-32.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics holds its Distribution at $12.55. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 75 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 75 days
Price at the screen
$12.55
Valuation
N/A trailing · -3.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.84%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
14.01%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 14.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
79.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 80.0% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics's business is fine, but its receivables are about 80% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +139% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Nanobody Hopes Rest on Thin Clinical Data
A clinical stage biotech chasing relief for inflamed skin and joints is a familiar story in Switzerland. MoonLake is developing a tri specific nanobody to block IL 17 pathways, yet it still posts zero profit margins and an ROE of minus 78 percent. With an opportunity rating of none we pass, because the ethical screen returns insufficient data and the usual financial ratios are simply not available.
Forward earnings sit at a negative 5.7 times multiple while revenue remains absent. Thirteen analysts point to a 30 dollar median target against the current 19.68 dollar price, but that gap means little when basic profitability metrics cannot be checked. The business is still years from any cash flow that would justify a real valuation.
Risk is straightforward. Without audited financial ratios or a clear ethical profile the margin of safety stays theoretical. Currency and trial failure exposure add further uncertainty in a sector where most candidates never reach the market. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MLTX trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$12.55-19.2%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 19.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$15.53-21.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 21.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-08-05Markup$19.68+5.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-18Markup$18.69+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-03Markup$18.69+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$18.69Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
