POST · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.6B · 13,180 employees
Post Holdings, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
80.19 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Post Holdings, Inc. holds its Distribution at $80.19. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 74 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 74 days
Price at the screen
$80.19
Valuation
14.58 trailing · 11.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 53.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Breakfast Bowls Trade Cheap But Deliver Little
Every morning millions reach for a box of cereal without thinking about the slow grind behind it. Post Holdings sits in that everyday aisle, a collection of brands that grows revenue at just 5 percent a year while posting a 4 percent profit margin and 10 percent return on equity. The shares sit 51 percent below our fair value at a forward multiple of 10 times, yet the business shows no clear moat and little momentum to close the gap.
We pass because low returns and modest growth outweigh the apparent discount. Analysts see a buy with targets around 122, but the numbers do not suggest earnings power is about to re-rate. The ethical screen is cleared, yet that alone does not turn a middling packaged-foods holding company into a compelling case.
Risk sits in the thin margins and unknown competitive edge that leave little room for error if commodity costs rise or private-label pressure intensifies. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
POST trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-08-09Markup · changed$78.69-15.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 15.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-07-18Distribution$93.14+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-07-03Distribution$93.14+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$93.14Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
