Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.24, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price80.56 USD
Fair value121.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup78.26+2.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-09Read Distribution81.97-1.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-08-09Read Markup78.69+2.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 16% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution93.14-13.5% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Post Holdings, Inc. holds its Markup at $80.56. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$80.56
Valuation
14.23 trailing · 10.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.32%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Post Holdings,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 57% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when POST's ethical verdict changes
Today POST does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 54.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Breakfast Bowls Trade Cheap But Deliver Little
Every morning millions reach for a box of cereal without thinking about the slow grind behind it. Post Holdings sits in that everyday aisle, a collection of brands that grows revenue at just 5 percent a year while posting a 4 percent profit margin and 10 percent return on equity. The shares sit 51 percent below our fair value at a forward multiple of 10 times, yet the business shows no clear moat and little momentum to close the gap.
We pass because low returns and modest growth outweigh the apparent discount. Analysts see a buy with targets around 122, but the numbers do not suggest earnings power is about to re-rate. The ethical screen is cleared, yet that alone does not turn a middling packaged-foods holding company into a compelling case.
Risk sits in the thin margins and unknown competitive edge that leave little room for error if commodity costs rise or private-label pressure intensifies. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
POST trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup · changed$78.26+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-10-21Distribution$78.26+4.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-10-14Distribution$74.82+2.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-10-02Distribution$72.83-11.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-08-09Markup · changed$78.69-15.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 15.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-07-18Distribution$93.14+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-07-03Distribution$93.14+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$93.14Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
