2026-10-25
Ingredion clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 16:02 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Ingredion Incorporated
INGR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.1B · 11,000 employees
Ingredion Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of sweeteners, starches, nutrition ingredients, and biomaterial solutions derived from wet milling and processing corn, and othe…
Not yet scored97.36 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 16:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price97.36 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans slightly to calls (put/call 0.95)
- Last reviewed4 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $142.50 to $194.72, base estimate $142.50 (screen dated 2026-11-04).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.95, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price97.36 USD
Fair value142.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup97.36+0.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-28Read Accumulation96.82+0.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown94.91+2.6% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-02Read Markup105.03-7.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup while volume is distributing
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
Ingredion Incorporated holds its Markup at $97.36. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 248 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 248 days |
| Price at the screen | $97.36 |
| Valuation | 10.59 trailing · 8.67 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.62 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 24.96% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 25.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.04% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 26.10% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 26.1% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Ingredion clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Ingredion clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 25%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 32% discount to our $142.50 fair value, 0.90% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.7% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $142.50, with a range of $142.50 to $194.72, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsCorn Sweeteners Fuel Snacks But Growth Stalls
Walk past the cereal aisle or grab a soft drink and the odds are high that Ingredion supplied the starch or sweetener inside. The business turns corn into ingredients for packaged foods worldwide, earns a steady 16 percent return on equity and clears a 9 percent profit margin while passing every ethical test we apply. Revenue however slipped 1 percent and the market prices the shares at just 8.9 times forward earnings against our 145 dollar fair value, yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
Shifting diets toward fewer processed products and volatile crop prices both threaten volumes. A low single digit margin gives scant cushion if costs rise or customers switch suppliers, and six analysts already reflect that caution with a hold stance and 116 dollar median target.
The cheap multiple may simply mark the new normal for a business that has stopped expanding rather than signal a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 8.7xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 10.6xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 9.19 |
| EPS, forward | 11.23 |
| Revenue growth | +0.9%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 8.2%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 13.7%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 7.45% |
| Dividend yield | 323.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.39minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 2.80comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 0.62steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.08% |
| 52-week range | 93.30 - 123.49 |
| Market cap | $6.1B |
| Employees | 11,000 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeINGR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markup · changed $97.36
+0.6% Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04
Accumulation $96.78
-2.2% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03
Accumulation $98.93
+2.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Accumulation $96.97
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Accumulation $96.97
+1.3% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Accumulation $95.70
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Accumulation $95.70
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $95.70
-1.2% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation · changed $96.82
+0.0% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
2026-10-21
Markdown $96.82
+1.8% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $122.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- ADM vs. INGR: Which Food Ingredients Stock Looks More Attractive? Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Analysts Estimate Ingredion (INGR) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
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Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $106.20 | -3.2% | · | $968 | -3.2% |
| 2 months | $114.66 | -10.4% | · | $896 | -10.4% |
| 3 months | $110.51 | -7.0% | $0.82 | $937 | -6.3% |
| 6 months | $109.57 | -6.2% | $1.64 | $953 | -4.7% |
| 1 year | $135.24 | -24.0% | $3.26 | $784 | -21.6% |
| 2 years | $109.50 | -6.2% | $6.44 | $997 | -0.3% |
| 3 years | $98.61 | +4.2% | $9.49 | $1,138 | +13.8% |
| 5 years | $82.28 | +24.9% | $14.86 | $1,429 | +42.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever INGR does next, these words stay.
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