LW · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.6B · 10,100 employees
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
47.85 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $47.85. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 88 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 88 days
Price at the screen
$47.85
Valuation
23.00 trailing · 14.18 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
53.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 53.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.48%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Frozen potato maker fails to clear our bar
Every time a fast food chain in Ohio or a supermarket in Germany restocks the freezer aisle, Lamb Weston is somewhere in the supply chain. Yet the business grows revenue at just 3 percent a year with only a 5 percent profit margin and an unknown competitive moat. At 15.5 times forward earnings the shares sit near the median analyst target of 46 dollars, offering no real margin of safety once you strip away the modest 14 percent gap to our own fair value.
We pass. The ethical screen is clean, return on equity reaches 17 percent and the sector is defensive, but none of that overcomes the lack of growth or pricing power that would justify a higher multiple or a larger position. Opportunity rating sits at none for a reason.
Commodity crop costs and shifting restaurant demand remain live risks even in packaged foods. The stock is not expensive, yet it is not interesting either. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LW trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$55.36+5.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-08-04Markup$52.55+15.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-18Markup$45.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-03Markup$45.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$45.38Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
