Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price14.70 USD
Fair value15.16
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-24Read Markup14.85-1.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution13.01+13.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Conagra Brands holds its Distribution at $14.70. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$14.70
Valuation
N/A trailing · 9.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
-0.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.02%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $15.16 fair value, weak competitive moat, 3.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Packaged food shelves hide weak returns and debt
Walk down any supermarket aisle and the familiar brands sit on every shelf. Yet Conagra carries a debt load that trips the ethical screen while posting a negative 17% profit margin and negative 25% return on equity. Revenue edges up just 4% and the moat looks weak, so the business earns an AVOID rating despite a modest 7% gap to fair value.
The forward multiple of 9.1 times offers little comfort once peak earnings risk and thin growth enter the frame. Sixteen analysts sit on hold with a median target matching the current price, confirming the market sees no obvious catalyst. Currency moves or input costs could quickly widen the gap between reported numbers and cash reality.
High leverage remains the core ethical failure here, and cyclical packaged-food margins have a habit of disappointing when volumes soften. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CAG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markup · changed$14.85+4.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-24Distribution$14.28+9.8%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-18Distribution$13.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-03Distribution$13.01+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$13.01Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
