Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price20.94 USD
Fair value23.75
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Markup24.16-13.3% to today
2026-07-25Read Markdown22.08-5.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Campbell's Company (The) holds its Distribution at $20.94. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$20.94
Valuation
15.98 trailing · 11.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.03%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.17%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 13% discount to our $23.75 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Campbell's Soup Sells Less While Debt Mounts
Picture the red and white can that once sat in every kitchen cupboard. Campbell's still shifts tins and snacks, yet revenue is falling 4% and the balance sheet carries more debt than our ethical screen will accept, so we pass.
The 11 times forward earnings multiple looks modest against 15% ROE and a narrow moat, but the price sits 14% above our fair value and seventeen analysts see only modest upside to 20 dollars. Defensive food names rarely reward investors who ignore the top line.
Heavy leverage that fails the debt test plus shrinking sales turn the low multiple into a warning rather than an opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CPB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Markup$24.16+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Markup$24.16+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markup$24.16+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markup$24.16+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markup$24.16+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markup$24.16+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Markup$24.16+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markup$24.16+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup · changed$24.16+9.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-25Markdown$22.08+1.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (18 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
