Freshpet, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price61.37 USD
Fair value60.25
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-29Read Markup74.89-18.1% to today
2026-07-30Read Accumulation56.64+8.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution52.66+16.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Freshpet, Inc. holds its Markdown at $61.37. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$61.37
Valuation
15.90 trailing · 31.27 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.84%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.88%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.84%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +36% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Premium pet food priced beyond its value
Picture a dog owner paying top dollar for fresh meals that feel like human-grade cooking. Freshpet delivers solid 13% revenue growth and 18% profit margins with 17% returns on equity, yet the shares trade at 31.4 times forward earnings, just above our fair value with a negative margin of safety. The market already prices in the growth story, leaving no clear entry point despite the ethical screen pass.
We pass because the numbers do not stack up for new capital. Consensus targets sit near 80 from sixteen analysts, but that optimism sits against a valuation that already bakes in continued expansion without room for error. Unknown competitive moat adds another layer of uncertainty in a category where big food groups can copy recipes quickly.
High multiples on modest growth carry real downside if consumer spending on premium pet products slows. Defensive label offers some cushion, yet paying above fair value still leaves investors exposed to any miss on the growth path. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FRPT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-29Markup · changed$74.89+32.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 32.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-18Distribution$52.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-03Distribution$52.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$52.66Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
