Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price102.50 USD
Fair value108.15
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-23Read Markup113.48-9.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution111.61-8.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Marzetti Company holds its Distribution at $102.50. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$102.50
Valuation
14.68 trailing · 14.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
4.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 4.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.18%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Frozen garlic bread meets a flat sales line
Every supermarket run includes a pack of New York Bakery garlic bread or a similar Marzetti product that moves from factory to table without much fuss. The business sits in steady defensive categories where demand rarely collapses, yet revenue slipped 1 percent last year while profit margins held at 9 percent and return on equity reached 17 percent. At 14.8 times forward earnings the shares trade below our fair value of 141 dollars, and the ethical screen clears without issue.
We still pass. Unknown competitive protection and zero top-line growth leave little room for sustained outperformance, even with a 32 percent margin of safety and a buy-rated analyst median target of 160 dollars. Defensive food names can look inexpensive for long stretches when volume stays flat.
Currency moves, private-label pressure and shifting consumer tastes in frozen goods remain live risks that could compress the current multiple further. The low growth already signals limited pricing power in a crowded aisle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MZTI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup$113.48+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $159. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$113.48+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $159. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup · changed$113.48+5.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $159. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-06Distribution$107.14-4.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $159.
2026-07-18Distribution$111.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $159.
2026-07-03Distribution$111.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$111.61Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.