Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price39.10 USD
Fair value34.77
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-06Read Markdown40.62-3.7% to today ✓
2026-08-06Read Distribution42.91-8.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation46.61-16.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NiSource holds its Markdown at $39.10. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$39.10
Valuation
20.80 trailing · 17.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.41%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NiSource's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $34.77 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 4.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas bills rise but this utility looks expensive
Millions turn up the heating each winter and the bills flow straight to regulated utilities like NiSource. Yet the numbers show a company trading well above what the cash flows justify, with a forward P/E of 20.4 times and a price 23 percent above our fair value. We pass.
Revenue is growing 8 percent and margins sit at 14 percent, yet return on equity is only 9 percent with a narrow moat. The market's buy rating and 52 dollar median target ignore the fact that this is a cyclical business where peak earnings often sit behind a low multiple that proves no bargain.
Debt levels already fail the ethical screen and leave little room if rates stay high or volumes soften. In a regulated gas utility that cycles with weather and energy prices, the combination of stretched valuation and balance sheet pressure is exactly the trap to avoid. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$39.10-3.7%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$40.62-5.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-18Accumulation$46.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-03Accumulation$46.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$46.61Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
