NAS10029,297−1.73%S&P7,695−0.63%GOLD$4,020−0.79%BTC$80,710−0.69%VIX16.75−0.95%latest tape · as of 18:02 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
National Bank Holdings Corporation
NBHC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.7B · 1,250 employees
National Bank Holdings Corporation operates as the bank holding company for NBH Bank that provides various banking products and financial services to commercial, business, and consumer clients in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
38.98 USD
Price as of 27 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-27 · the tape above runs as of 18:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price38.98 USD at the 27 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.00)
Last reviewed27 Oct 2026 (2 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 38.98 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 45.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price38.98 USD
Fair value45.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-06Read Markdown41.77-6.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-06Read Markup43.47-10.3% to today Markdown gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Markdown43.74-10.9% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
National Bank Holdings Corporation holds its Markdown at $38.98. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 336 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 336 days
Price at the screen
$38.98
Valuation
16.38 trailing · 9.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
National Bank does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when NBHC's ethical verdict changes
Today NBHC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional Bank That Trips Our Ethical Line
Picture a mid-sized lender serving small businesses and families across a handful of US states. Deposits come in, loans go out, and the whole operation runs on the same basic model that has existed for decades. Yet the moment the name hits our ethical screen the case closes. Banks sit on the prohibited list by design, so we move on without further debate.
The numbers look tidy at first glance. Revenue rose 34 percent, margins sit near 25 percent, and the shares trade at 11.2 times forward earnings with a modest gap to our fair value. Still, return on equity is only 7 percent, the moat is unproven, and banking earnings are inherently cyclical. A low multiple on peak-cycle profits is rarely the bargain it appears.
Risk therefore sits in two places. First comes the ethical screen we do not bend. Second is the classic trap of mistaking a depressed valuation for safety when credit cycles turn. We pass. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NBHC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Markdown$37.13+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$37.13+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$37.13+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$37.13+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$37.13+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$37.13+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$37.13+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$37.13+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$37.13-7.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-10-02Markdown$40.01-4.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
