NBHC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.9B · 1,250 employees
National Bank Holdings Corporation operates as the bank holding company for NBH Bank that provides various banking products and financial services to commercial, business, and consumer clients in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
42.07 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · 13 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
National Bank Holdings Corporation holds its Markdown at $42.07. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days
Price at the screen
$42.07
Valuation
17.68 trailing · 10.70 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional Bank That Trips Our Ethical Line
Picture a mid-sized lender serving small businesses and families across a handful of US states. Deposits come in, loans go out, and the whole operation runs on the same basic model that has existed for decades. Yet the moment the name hits our ethical screen the case closes. Banks sit on the prohibited list by design, so we move on without further debate.
The numbers look tidy at first glance. Revenue rose 34 percent, margins sit near 25 percent, and the shares trade at 11.2 times forward earnings with a modest gap to our fair value. Still, return on equity is only 7 percent, the moat is unproven, and banking earnings are inherently cyclical. A low multiple on peak-cycle profits is rarely the bargain it appears.
Risk therefore sits in two places. First comes the ethical screen we do not bend. Second is the classic trap of mistaking a depressed valuation for safety when credit cycles turn. We pass. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NBHC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$41.77-3.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$43.47-0.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-18Markdown$43.74+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-03Markdown$43.74+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$43.74Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
