Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price60.85 USD
Fair value64.47
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-14Read Markdown69.60-12.6% to today ✓
2026-08-14Read Markup79.83-23.8% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation75.68-19.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Triumph Financial, Inc. holds its Markdown at $60.85. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$60.85
Valuation
41.11 trailing · 19.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Triumph Financial, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +35% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional Banks Fail Our Basic Ethical Test
Every time a contractor needs working capital or a haulage firm waits on an invoice to clear, a regional bank sits in the middle taking its cut. Triumph Financial offers exactly those services, yet it trips our ethical screen at the first gate because the sector itself is on the prohibited list. That single rule ends the conversation before the numbers even matter.
The figures do nothing to change the verdict. Revenue crawls at 6 percent, profit margins sit at 7 percent and return on equity is a thin 3 percent while the shares trade at 25.7 times forward earnings, well above our fair-value estimate. Analyst targets cluster around the current price with a hold rating, offering no margin of safety and no reason to look past the ethical block.
High cyclical exposure in lending and payments adds the usual interest-rate and credit risks that come with any bank, yet none of that discussion is required once the screen has spoken. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TFIN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$60.85-12.6%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $69. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$69.60-12.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $69.
2026-08-14Markup · changed$79.83+5.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $69.
2026-07-18Accumulation$75.68+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $69.
2026-07-03Accumulation$75.68+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$75.68Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
