An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial holding company, provides banking, factoring, payments, and intelligence services in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $79.83
Triumph Financial, Inc. holds its Markup at $79.83.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price
$79.83
Valuation
53.94 trailing · 25.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.38
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$79.83
53.94 P/E · 25.25 fwd
Our fair value
$67.72
15% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$88.00
+10% to current
Target low $82.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $89.00
▲ current $79.83 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$79.83
you are here
Conservative
$67.72
-15%
Analyst avg
$88.00
+10%
Our fair value
$67.72
-15%
Analyst high
$89.00
+11%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
11.90%
Profit margin
8.50%
Analyst consensus
Hold · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityProhibited keyword in sector/industry: bankFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Regional Banks Fail Our Basic Ethical Test
Every time a contractor needs working capital or a haulage firm waits on an invoice to clear, a regional bank sits in the middle taking its cut. Triumph Financial offers exactly those services, yet it trips our ethical screen at the first gate because the sector itself is on the prohibited list. That single rule ends the conversation before the numbers even matter.
The figures do nothing to change the verdict. Revenue crawls at 6 percent, profit margins sit at 7 percent and return on equity is a thin 3 percent while the shares trade at 25.7 times forward earnings, well above our fair-value estimate. Analyst targets cluster around the current price with a hold rating, offering no margin of safety and no reason to look past the ethical block.
High cyclical exposure in lending and payments adds the usual interest-rate and credit risks that come with any bank, yet none of that discussion is required once the screen has spoken. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in TFIN's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
TFIN trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $69. Entered 2026-08-14 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-14Markup · changed$79.83+5.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $69.
2026-07-18Accumulation$75.68+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $69.
2026-07-03Accumulation$75.68+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$75.68Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$64.85
+12.8%
·
$1,128
+12.8%
2 months
$62.03
+17.9%
·
$1,179
+17.9%
3 months
$55.59
+31.5%
·
$1,315
+31.5%
6 months
$62.28
+17.4%
·
$1,174
+17.4%
1 year
$61.05
+19.8%
·
$1,198
+19.8%
2 years
$72.71
+0.6%
·
$1,006
+0.6%
3 years
$60.51
+20.8%
·
$1,208
+20.8%
5 years
$81.84
-10.7%
·
$894
-10.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever TFIN does next, these words stay.
Triumph Financial, Inc. · TFIN · Markup · $79.83
Recorded 2026-08-04 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
