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The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Lockheed Martin
LMT · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $123.7B · 123,000 employees
Lockheed Martin Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services in the United States, E…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
536.15 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Lockheed Martin holds its Distribution at $536.15. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$536.15
Valuation
19.78 trailing · 16.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 19% discount to our $637.22 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 10.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lockheed Martin - A Skewed Star in the Defense Sky
Imagine the world's largest defense contractor, Lockheed Martin, building the next generation of fighter jets and satellites, shaping the future of warfare. But while it stands as a titan in its field, ethical considerations cast a long shadow. Lockheed Martin is the epitome of the military-industrial complex, and it fails our ethical screen, which is why we're steering clear.
Why it stands out, or rather, why we pass, is not solely about finances. The numbers tell a story of growth with a 10% revenue increase and an impressive 89% return on equity, suggesting a robust business. The forward P/E of 17.5x and our fair value of $637.17 point to a potential undervaluation. However, the ethical failings overshadow these financials.
The risk here is twofold: the ethical considerations that lead to our AVOID rating and the cyclical nature of defense spending, which can trap investors at peak earnings into a low multiple value trap. While analysts may hold a consensus rating of 'hold' with a median target of $620, our ethical stance leaves us unable to align with such investments. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LMT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup · changed$571.48+12.3%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $627.
2026-07-21Accumulation$508.77+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $627. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Accumulation$508.77+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $627. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Accumulation$508.77-2.9%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $627. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$523.76+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $627. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Accumulation$523.76+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $627. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Accumulation$523.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $627. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Accumulation$523.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$523.76Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
