An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · BAE Systems plc provides defense, aerospace, and security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Australia, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Europe, and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $106.77
BAE Systems plc holds its Markup at $106.77.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 292 days
Price
$106.77
Valuation
29.33 trailing · 20.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
-0.07
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$106.77
29.33 P/E · 20.35 fwd
Our fair value
$120.35
13% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$135.77
+27% to current
Target low $131.53Analyst target rangeTarget high $140.00
▲ current $106.77 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$106.77
you are here
Conservative
$118.38
+11%
Analyst avg
$135.77
+27%
Our fair value
$120.35
+13%
Analyst high
$140.00
+31%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
6.70%
Profit margin
7.28%
Debt to equity
76.73
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Defense spending meets an ethical hard stop
Governments keep signing bigger cheques for jets and radar, yet the cash never quite reaches the same moral ledger as civilian tech. BAE Systems sits at the centre of that flow, posting 7% revenue growth, a 7% profit margin and 18% ROE while trading on 19.2 times forward earnings. The numbers look steady and the 19% gap to our fair value hints at value, but none of it clears the first gate.
We pass outright. The ethical screen flags core business activity in weapons and defence platforms, and that single failure overrides every multiple and growth line. Moderate moat or not, two analysts and a $136 median target cannot shift the line we draw.
The real exposure sits in long contract cycles and shifting government budgets that can flatten earnings without warning. Currency moves across its US, UK and Middle East footprint add another layer that rarely appears in the headline margin. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
BAESY trades on PNK (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136. Entered 2026-07-22 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-22Distribution$100.99-1.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-18Distribution$102.22+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Distribution$102.22+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$102.22Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$104.10
-0.3%
·
$997
-0.3%
2 months
$117.88
-12.0%
$1.22
$891
-10.9%
3 months
$121.97
-14.9%
$1.22
$861
-13.9%
6 months
$90.34
+14.9%
$1.22
$1,162
+16.2%
1 year
$98.53
+5.3%
$1.94
$1,073
+7.3%
2 years
$69.23
+49.9%
$3.65
$1,551
+55.1%
3 years
$45.18
+129.7%
$5.16
$2,411
+141.1%
5 years
$26.89
+285.8%
$7.80
$4,148
+314.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BAESY does next, these words stay.
BAE Systems plc · BAESY · Markup · $106.77
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
