BAE Systems plc provides defense, aerospace, and security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Australia, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
106.37 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 18:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price106.37 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price106.37 USD
Fair value116.80
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-03Read Markup111.08-4.2% to today Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-09-24Read Markdown109.68-3.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-22Read Accumulation116.57-8.8% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 14% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution102.22+4.1% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
BAE Systems plc holds its Markup at $106.37. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$106.37
Valuation
29.60 trailing · 20.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
-0.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited sector: defense
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.48%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
BAE Systems does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when BAESY's ethical verdict changes
Today BAESY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate, American Friends Service Committee, Don’t Buy Into Occupation, Palestinian BDS National Committee
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate / American Friends Service Committee / Don’t Buy Into Occupation / Palestinian BDS National Committee — category: Corporate Complicity Report / Annex 2 Company List. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $116.80 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 7.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $116.80, with a range of $101.70 to $134.31, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Defense spending meets an ethical hard stop
Governments keep signing bigger cheques for jets and radar, yet the cash never quite reaches the same moral ledger as civilian tech. BAE Systems sits at the centre of that flow, posting 7% revenue growth, a 7% profit margin and 18% ROE while trading on 19.2 times forward earnings. The numbers look steady and the 19% gap to our fair value hints at value, but none of it clears the first gate.
We pass outright. The ethical screen flags core business activity in weapons and defence platforms, and that single failure overrides every multiple and growth line. Moderate moat or not, two analysts and a $136 median target cannot shift the line we draw.
The real exposure sits in long contract cycles and shifting government budgets that can flatten earnings without warning. Currency moves across its US, UK and Middle East footprint add another layer that rarely appears in the headline margin. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BAESY trades on PNK (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup · changed$111.08+7.9%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-10-27Markdown$102.97+4.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-10-13Markdown$98.54-6.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-10-02Markdown$104.78-4.5%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-09-24Markdown · changed$109.68-5.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 15.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-22Distribution$100.99-1.2%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-18Distribution$102.22+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Distribution$102.22+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$102.22Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
